Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs
This paper uses propensity score methods to address the question: how well can an observational study estimate the treatment impact of a program? Using data from Lalonde's (1986) influential evaluation of non-experimental methods, we demonstrate that propensity score methods succeed in estimating the treatment impact of the National Supported Work Demonstration. Propensity score methods reduce the task of controlling for differences in pre-intervention variables between the treatment and the non-experimental comparison groups to controlling for differences in the estimated propensity score (the probability of assignment to treatment, conditional on covariates). It is difficult to control for differences in pre-intervention variables when they are numerous and when the treatment and comparison groups are dissimilar, whereas controlling for the estimated propensity score, a single variable on the unit interval, is a straightforward task. We apply several methods, such as stratification on the propensity score and matching on the propensity score, and show that they result in accurate estimates of the treatment impact.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, no. 448 (December 1999): 1053-1062.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
- Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988.
"Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
- David Card & Daniel Sullivan, 1987. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements In andOut of Employment," NBER Working Papers 2173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angrist, Joshua D, 1990.
"Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-36, June.
- Joshua Angrist, 1989. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," Working Papers 631, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.