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Evaluating the Dynamic Employment Effects of Training Programs in East Germany Using Conditional Difference-in-Differences

  • Bergemann, Annette

    ()

    (University of Bristol)

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd

    ()

    (Humboldt University Berlin)

  • Speckesser, Stefan

    ()

    (University of Westminster)

This study analyzes the employment effects of training in East Germany. We propose and apply an extension of the widely used conditional difference-in-differences evaluation method. Focusing on transition rates between nonemployment and employment we take into account that employment is a state dependent process. Our results indicate that using transition rates is more appropriate and informative than using unconditional employment rates as commonly done in the literature. Training as a first participation in a program of Active Labor Market Policies shows zero to small positive effects both on reemployment probabilities and on probabilities of remaining employed with notable variation over the different start dates of the program.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1848.

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Length: 87 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1848
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  1. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  2. Annette Bergemann & Gerard van den Berg, 2006. "Active labour market policy effects for women in Europe - a survey," IFS Working Papers W06/26, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
  4. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kluve, Jochen & Lehmann, Hartmut & Schmidt, Christoph M, 1999. "Active Labour Market Policies in Poland: Human Capital Enhancement, Stigmatization or Benefit Churning?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program evaluation and random program starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  7. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20032, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  8. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J & Vroman, Susan, 2006. "The Aggregate Labour Market Effects of the Swedish Knowledge Lift Program," CEPR Discussion Papers 5927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Florian Kraus & Patrick Puhani & Viktor Steiner, 1999. "Employment Effects of Publicly Financed Training Programs - The East German Experience," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 219(1+2), pages 216-248, July.
  10. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Speckesser, Stefan, 2005. "Employment Effects of the Provision of Specific Professional Skills and Techniques in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1868, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Van den Berg, G J & Lindeboom, M & Ridder, G, 1994. "Attrition in Longitudinal Panel Data and the Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Labour Market Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 421-35, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
  13. Birgit Schultz, 1998. "Hohe Verfestigung der Arbeitslosigkeit in Ostdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 4(16), pages 3-8.
  14. Hidehiko Ichimura & Oliver Linton, 2001. "Asymptotic expansions for some semiparametric program evaluation estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/01, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  15. Eichler, Martin & Lechner, Michael, 1999. "An Evaluation of Public Employment Programmes in the East German State of Sachsen-Anhalt," IZA Discussion Papers 94, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
  17. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Prey, Hedwig, 2000. "Evaluating Public Sector Sponsored Training in East Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 497-520, July.
  18. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1984. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 1489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 1-106.
  20. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
  21. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  22. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "The Curse and Blessing of Training the Unemployed in a Changing Economy: the Case of East Germany after Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 5171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Magnac & Visser, 1999. "Transition models with measurement errors," Working Papers 156514, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  24. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  25. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Estimating the effects of public training on Polish unemployment by way of the augmented matching function approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-38, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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