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Long-Run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany

  • Lechner, Michael

    ()

    (University of St. Gallen)

  • Miquel, Ruth

    ()

    (University of St. Gallen)

  • Wunsch, Conny

    ()

    (University of Basel)

Between 1991 and 1997 West Germany spent on average about 3.6 bn Euro per year on public sector sponsored training programmes for the unemployed. We base our empirical analysis on a new administrative data base that plausibly allows for selectivity correction by microeconometric matching methods. We identify the effects of different types of training programmes over a horizon of more than seven years. Using bias corrected weighted multiple neighbours matching we find that all programmes have negative effects in the short run and positive effects over a horizon of about four years. However, for substantive training programmes with duration of about two years gains in employment probabilities of more than 10% points appear to be sustainable, but come at the price of large negative lock-in effects.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1443.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2011, 9 (4), 742-784
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1443
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  1. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20034, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  2. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects of Multiple Treatments Under the Conditional Independence Assumption," IZA Discussion Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Michael Lechner, 2000. "Programme Heterogeneity and Propensity Score Matching: An Application to the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0647, Econometric Society.
  4. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November.
  5. van Ours, Jan C, 2002. "The Locking-in Effect of Subsidized Jobs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3489, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Does subsidised temporary employment get the unemployed back to work? An econometric analysis of two different schemes," Diskussionsschriften dp0303, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  7. Michael Lechner, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  8. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2010. "Identification of the effects of dynamic treatments by sequential conditional independence assumptions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 111-137, August.
  9. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Axel Borsch-Supan, 1990. "Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 960, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Hujer, Reinhard & Caliendo, Marco, 2000. "Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policy: Methodological Concepts and Empirical Estimates," IZA Discussion Papers 236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Michael Lechner, 2005. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Labor and Demography 0505006, EconWPA.
  12. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gerfin, Michael & Lechner, Michael, 2000. "Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 154, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program evaluation and random program starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  15. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01.
  17. Guido W. Imbens, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review," NBER Technical Working Papers 0294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  19. Lechner, Michael, 1996. "An Evaluation of Public Sector Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," Discussion Papers 539, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  20. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001. "Evaluating an Innovative Redundancy-Retraining Project: The Austrian Steel Foundation," IZA Discussion Papers 277, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  21. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Jacob A. Klerman, 2000. "The Long-Term Gains from GAIN: A Re-Analysis of the Impacts of the California GAIN Program," NBER Working Papers 8007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 1998. "Empirical Strategies in Labor Economics," Working Papers 780, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  23. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," NBER Working Papers 6699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
  25. van Ours, J.C., 2004. "The locking-in effect of subsidized jobs," Other publications TiSEM c4fd99a1-4c2f-46c6-9ee2-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  26. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  27. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
  28. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Program Heterogeneity And Propensity Score Matching: An Application To The Evaluation Of Active Labor Market Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 205-220, May.
  29. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
  30. Laura Larsson, 2003. "Evaluation of Swedish Youth Labor Market Programs," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
  31. Reinhard Hujer & Kai-Oliver Maurer & Marc Wellner, 1999. "Estimating the Effect of Vocational Training on Unemployment Duration in West Germany: A Discrete Hazard Rate Model with Instrumental Variables," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 218(5+6), pages 619-646, May.
  32. Prey, Hedwig, 1997. "Beschäftigungswirkungen von öffentlich geförderten Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen: Eine Paneluntersuchung für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers 41, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  33. Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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