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The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms

  • Russ, Katheryn

This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, standard regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results hinge on the interaction of macroeconomic uncertainty, a sunk cost, and heterogeneous productivity across firms. They indicate that a multinational firm’s response to increases in exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whether the volatility arises from shocks in the firm’s native or host country. It is the first study to depart from the representative-firm framework in an analysis of direct investment behavior with money.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt9xr4f238.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt9xr4f238
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  1. Takao Itagaki, 1981. "The Theory of the Multinational Firm under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 276-97, May.
  2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Dunning, John H, 1973. "The Determinants of International Production," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 289-336, November.
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
  5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, 06-2016.
  6. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
  7. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  9. Stevens, Guy V. G., 1998. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: A Note," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 393-401, June.
  10. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc J, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, December.
  12. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
  13. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J, 1996. "The Theory of Endowment, Intra-Industry and Multinational Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E, 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 411-23, May.
  15. Alexander Lehmann, 1999. "Country Risks and the Investment Activity of U.S. Multinationals in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/133, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
  17. Blonigen, Bruce A, 1997. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 447-65, June.
  18. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
  19. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Robert E. Lipsey, 1998. "Internationalized Production in Developed and Developing Countries and in Industry Sectors," NBER Working Papers 6405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Khalid Sekkat & Olivia Galgau, 2004. "The impact of the single market and the single currency on foreign direct investment in the European Union," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7396, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  22. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-22, November.
  23. Pietra Rivoli & Eugene Salorio, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(2), pages 335-357, June.
  24. Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Exchange-rate exposure of multinationals: focusing on exchange-rate issues," International Finance Discussion Papers 709, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Horstmann, Ignatius J. & Markusen, James R., 1992. "Endogenous market structures in international trade (natura facit saltum)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 109-129, February.
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