IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v158y2025ics0022199625001151.html

Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Hirakata, Naohisa
  • Katagiri, Mitsuru

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirakata, Naohisa & Katagiri, Mitsuru, 2025. "Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:158:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625001151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199625001151
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    2. Laura Alfaro & Pol Antràs & Davin Chor & Paola Conconi, 2019. "Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 508-559.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n8t832o04 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lewis, Logan T., 2014. "Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 371-386.
    5. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    7. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Technology Capital and the US Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1493-1522, September.
    8. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    9. Chen, Peter & Karabarbounis, Loukas & Neiman, Brent, 2017. "The global rise of corporate saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Fattal Jaef, Roberto N. & Lopez, Jose Ignacio, 2014. "Entry, trade costs, and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 224-238.
    11. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2013. "Organizing the Global Value Chain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2127-2204, November.
    12. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
    13. Marc Melitz & Stephen Redding, 2013. "Firm Heterogeneity and Aggregate Welfare," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers hal-03473900, HAL.
    14. Russ, Katheryn, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9xr4f238, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Rodriguez Maria Jose, 2019. "Investment for the Demographic Window in Latin America," Working Papers 2019-15, Banco de México.
    16. Laura Alfaro & Andrew Charlton, 2009. "Intra-industry Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2096-2119, December.
    17. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Technical appendix: Transition to FDI openness - reconciling theory and evidence," Staff Report 455, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Ellen McGrattan, 2012. "Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 437-458, October.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n8t832o04 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    21. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    22. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 2021. "The theory of endowment, intra-industry and multi-national trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 4, pages 69-94, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    24. Ellen McGrattan, 2012. "Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 437-458, October.
    25. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2006. "An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 271-295, September.
    26. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Industrial location and public infrastructure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
    27. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    28. Laura Alfaro & Katheryn N. Russ, 2023. "Jackson Hole 2023 - Global Production Networks," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    29. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    30. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December.
    32. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    33. McGrattan, Ellen R. & Prescott, Edward C., 2009. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2454-2476, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Policy Effects of International Taxation on Firm Dynamics and Capital Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2149-2200.
    2. Bonfatti, Andrea & İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri, 2022. "Japan and the allocation puzzle in an aging world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Contessi, Silvio, 2015. "Multinational firms׳ entry and productivity: Some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 61-80.
    4. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Linking the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment with national knowledge systems," EconStor Preprints 266495, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Sotiris Blanas & Adnan Seric, 2018. "Determinants of intra‐firm trade: Evidence from foreign affiliates in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 917-956, September.
    6. Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
    7. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Testing the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment: New evidence," MPRA Paper 114177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sotiris Blanas & Adnan Seric, 2017. "Determinants of Intra-Firm Trade," Working Papers 178118175, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Revisiting the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment: New multi-country evidence," MPRA Paper 114559, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2022.
    11. Alexis Anagnostopoulos & Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Elisa Faraglia & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock~Market Comovement," Department of Economics Working Papers 19-03, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Antrà s, Pol & Yeaple, Stephen R., 2014. "Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 55-130, Elsevier.
    14. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott & Thomas J. Holmes, 2011. "Technology Capital Transfer," 2011 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Kox, Henk L.M., 2023. "Testing an extended knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment," MPRA Paper 117266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2016. "Fertility, Longevity, and Capital Flows," 2016 Meeting Papers 442, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393116, HAL.
    18. Maemir, H. & Ziesemer, T., 2014. "Multinational production and trade in an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms," MERIT Working Papers 2014-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    20. Shi, Jiao, 2019. "Vertical FDI and exchange rates over the business cycle: The welfare implications of openness to FDI," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 274-293.
    21. Ellen McGrattan, 2012. "Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 437-458, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:158:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625001151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.