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Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms

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  • Katheryn Niles Russ

Abstract

Using a model with upfront sunk costs, heterogeneous firms, and endogenous exchange rates, this paper demonstrates theoretically that volatility in fundamental variables such as the nominal interest rate that drive exchange rate volatility can simultaneously impact the entry behavior of multinational firms through a relative price channel unrelated to exchange rate risk. It then provides an empirical illustration of the bias this endogeneity can cause when regressing measures of foreign direct investment on exchange rate volatility. It is the first paper to provide empirical evidence that interest rate volatility may influence the behavior of multinational firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Katheryn Niles Russ, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 13659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13659
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    Cited by:

    1. Lewis, Logan T., 2014. "Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 371-386.
    2. Perekunah B. Eregha, 2020. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flow in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 85-99, January.
    3. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Udo Broll & Soumyatanu Mukherjee, 2018. "The attitude of multinationals towards risks," Discussion Papers 2018-02, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: evidence using stock data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2779-2820, December.
    6. Perekunah B. Eregha, 2019. "Exchange Rate, Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in West African Monetary Zone," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, February.
    7. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    8. Stefano D’Addona & Lilia Cavallari, 2020. "External Shocks, Trade Margins, and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Claudia Buch & Iris Kesternich & Alexander Lipponer & Monika Schnitzer, 2014. "Financial constraints and foreign direct investment: firm-level evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(2), pages 393-420, May.
    10. Thomas A. Lubik & Katheryn N. Russ, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility in a simple model of firm entry and FDI," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 98(1Q), pages 51-76.
    11. Cavallari, Lilia, 2013. "Firms' entry, monetary policy and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 263-274.
    12. S. Veeramani & Abha Shukla & Mariam Jamaleh, 2020. "Financial theories of foreign direct investment: a review of literature," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(2), pages 185-217, June.
    13. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano D'Addona, 2013. "Business cycle determinants of US foreign direct investments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 966-970, July.
    14. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp272, IIIS.
    15. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    16. Mauro Ghinamo & Paolo Panteghini & Federico Revelli, 2010. "FDI determination and corporate tax competition in a volatile world," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 532-555, October.
    17. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2012:i:1q:p:51-76:n:vol.98no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2008. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-21.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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