IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Going multinational under exchange rate uncertainty

  • Aray, Henry
  • Gardeazabal, Javier

We analyze a model where an exporting firm competes a la Cournot in a foreign market. The firm faces exchange rate uncertainty and has the option to invest abroad. The paper contributes four results. First, real option pricing techniques are used to derive the optimal timing rule of the investment and the price of the firm and foreign competitors. Second, the sunk cost of entry into the foreign market introduces hysteresis in direct investment flows. We find that the degree of hysteresis grows with the number of firms in the industry. Third, we determine the conditions under which dumping may appear and the role of FDI in precluding this type of dumping. Fourth, tariffs have the well known FDI-inducing effect, more so in less competitive markets, and are more effective at deterring delocation. Furthermore, a tariff might have the effect of triggering dumping.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(10)00022-7
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1171-1191

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1171-1191
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Shrikhande, Milind M, 2002. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and the Real Exchange Rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 309-25, October.
  2. Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik, 1970. "Price Duopoly and Capacity Constraints," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 287, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Jelle Brouwer & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2007. "The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2123, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Yuqing Xing & Guanghua Wan, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Competition for FDI in Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 419-434, 04.
  5. Yuqing Xing, 2004. "Why is China so Attractive for FDI The Role of Exchange Rates," Working Papers EMS_2004_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  6. Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James A. Brander & Paul Krugman, 1983. "A 'Reciprocal Dumping' Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 1194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Delgado, Francisco A., 1991. "Hysteresis, menu costs, and pricing with random exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-484, December.
  9. Belderbos, R. & Vandenbussche, H. & Veugelers, R., 2004. "Antidumping duties, undertakings, and foreign direct investment in the EU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 429-453, April.
  10. Motta, Massimo, 1992. "Multinational firms and the tariff-jumping argument : A game theoretic analysis with some unconventional conclusions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1557-1571, December.
  11. Thille, Henry, 2006. "Inventories, market structure, and price volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1081-1104, July.
  12. Buch, Claudia M. & Kleinert, Jörn, 2006. "Exchange rates and FDI: Goods versus capital market frictions," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 304, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  13. Poddar, Sougata & Sasaki, Dan, 2002. "The strategic benefit from advance production," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 579-595, September.
  14. Moreno, Diego & Ubeda, Luis, 2006. "Capacity precommitment and price competition yield the Cournot outcome," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 323-332, August.
  15. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  16. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  17. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
  18. Knetter, Michael M. & Prusa, Thomas J., 2003. "Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-17, October.
  19. Paxson, Dean & Pinto, Helena, 2005. "Rivalry under price and quantity uncertainty," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 209-224.
  20. Julio J. Rotemberg & Garth Saloner, 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior of Strategic Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 73-97.
  21. Blonigen, Bruce A, 1997. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 447-65, June.
  22. Rob, Rafael & Vettas, Nikolaos, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 2786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
  24. Davies, Stephen W. & McGuinness, Anthony J., 1982. "Dumping at less than marginal cost," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 169-182, February.
  25. Nelson, Douglas, 2006. "The political economy of antidumping: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 554-590, September.
  26. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  27. Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1335, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  28. Lee, Kyung-Ho & Mah, Jai S., 2003. "Institutional changes and antidumping decisions in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 555-565, September.
  29. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
  30. Robert Novy-Marx, 2007. "An Equilibrium Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1461-1502, 2007 29.
  31. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  32. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-22, November.
  33. Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
  34. Sylvia Gottschalk & Stephen Hall, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in South-East Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 349-359.
  35. Campa, Jose & Donnenfeld, Shabtai & Weber, Shlomo, 1998. "Market Structure and Foreign Direct Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 361-80, August.
  36. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1171-1191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.