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Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetime

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  • Maik T. Schneider
  • Ralph Winkler

Abstract

We study the role of endogenous healthcare choices by households to extend their expected lifetimes on economic growth and welfare in a decentralized overlapping generations economy with the realistic feature that households’ savings are held in annuities. We characterize healthcare spending in the decentralized market equilibrium and its effects on economic growth. We identify the moral-hazard effect in healthcare investments when annuity rates are conditioned on average mortality and explain the conditions under which this leads to over-investment in healthcare. Moreover, we specify the general equilibrium effects and macroeconomic repercussions associated with this moral-hazard effect. In a numerical simulation of our model with OECD data, we find that the moral-hazard effect may be substantial and implies sizeable welfare losses of approximately 1.5%. At a more general level, our study suggests that welfare improvements from longevity increases may be lower than suggested when considered in planner economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maik T. Schneider & Ralph Winkler, 2017. "Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetime," CESifo Working Paper Series 6367, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6367
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    2. Torben M. Andersen & Joydeep Bhattacharya, 2014. "A dynamic-efficiency rationale for public investment in the health of the young," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 697-719, August.
    3. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    4. Kuhn, Michael & Frankovic, Ivan & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2017. "Medical Progress, Demand for Health Care, and Economic Performance," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168249, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. repec:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0654-z is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2016. "Medical care within an OLG economy with realistic demography," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2016, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    annuities; economic growth; endogenous longevity; healthcare expenditures; healthcare technology; moral hazard; pension systems; welfare analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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