IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hohdps/202016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Kufenko, Vadim
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

We propose theory-based Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the extent to which the estimated speed of convergence depends on the underlying econometric techniques. Based on a theoretical growth model as the data generating process, we find that, given a true speed of convergence of around 5%, the estimated values range from 0.2% to 7.72%. This corresponds to a range of the half life of a given gap from around 9 years up to several hundred years. With the exception of the (very inefficient) system GMM estimator with the collapsed matrix of instruments, the true speed of convergence is outside of the 95% confidence intervals of all investigated state-of-the-art estimators. In terms of the squared percent error, the between estimator and the system GMM estimator with the non-collapsed matrix of instruments perform worst, while the system GMM estimator with the collapsed matrix of instruments and the corrected least squares dummy variable estimator perform best. Based on these results we argue that it is not a good strategy to rely on only one or two different estimators when assessing the speed of convergence, even if these estimators are seen as suitable for the given sources of biases and inefficiencies. Instead one should compare the outcomes of different estimators carefully in light of the results of Monte Carlo simulation studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohdps:202016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/148022/1/872704696.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Irmen, Andreas & Litina, Anastasia, 2022. "Population Aging And Inventive Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1127-1161, July.
    3. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    5. Maria Abreu & Henri L. F. de Groot & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of β‐Convergence: the Legendary 2%," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 389-420, July.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Lábaj, Martin & Pružinský, Patrik, 2014. "Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 50-57.
    8. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    9. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    10. Bun, Maurice J. G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2003. "On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 145-152, May.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    13. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    15. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    16. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    18. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    19. Buddelmeyer, Hielke & Jensen, Paul H. & Oguzoglu, Umut & Webster, Elizabeth, 2008. "Fixed Effects Bias in Panel Data Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3487, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980, Decembrie.
    22. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    23. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    24. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    25. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    26. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2007. "Small sample bias properties of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 32-38, April.
    27. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    28. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    29. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    30. Roberto Esposti, 2007. "Regional Growth and Policies in the European Union: Does the Common Agricultural Policy Have a Counter-Treatment Effect?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 116-134.
    31. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus & Geloso, Vincent, 2020. "Divergence, convergence, and the history-augmented Solow model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 62-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kufenko, Vadmin & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "You can't always get what you want? A Monte Carlo analysis of the bias and the efficiency of dynamic panel data estimators," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 07/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Do you know your biases? A Monte Carlo analysis of dynamic panel data estimators," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp316, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    5. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    6. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    7. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Lee, Angela Y. & Aaker, Jennifer L., 2006. "A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions," Research Papers 1836r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg, 2014. "The democratic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 141-181, June.
    10. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    11. Steven Yamarik, 2011. "Human capital and state-level economic growth: what is the contribution of schooling?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 195-211, August.
    12. Ouyang, Yusi & Shimeles, Abebe & Thorbecke, Erik, 2019. "Revisiting cross-country poverty convergence in the developing world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-28.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maciej Stefański, 2020. "To What Extent does Convergence Explain the Slowdown in Potential Growth of the CEE Countries Following the Global Financial Crisis?," KAE Working Papers 2020-058, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    15. Carlos Usabiaga & E. Macarena Hernández-Salmerón, 2016. "Regional Growth and Convergence in Spain: Is the Decentralization Model Important?," EcoMod2016 9358, EcoMod.
    16. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    17. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Vu, Khuong M & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Backwardness advantage and economic growth in the information age: A cross-country empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    20. Zeira, Joseph & di Vaio, Gianfranco & Battisti, Michele, 2013. "Global Divergence in Growth Regressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Arshad Ali Bhatti & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2013. "Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 188, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speed of Convergence; Panel Data; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Estimator Bias; Estimator Efficiency; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hohdps:202016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.