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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад

  • Катышев П.К.
  • Полтерович В.М.

Выдвигается и аргументируется гипотеза о том, что масштабы трансформационного спада в переходных экономиках в последнем десятилетии XX в. определялись не только предрефор-менными начальными условиями, но и политикой приватизации. Приведены результаты регрессионных расчетов, подтверждающие эту гипотезу. Показано, что потери ВВП за 9 лет после начала реформ были тем больше, чем радикальнее осуществлялась приватизация в начале реформ. Расчеты показывают также, что правительства выбирали начальные темпы либерализации цен и внешней торговли, учитывая начальные условия. Этим, возможно, объясняется тот факт, что в регрессиях темпы либерализации оказываются незначимыми.

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Article provided by Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ) in its journal Экономика и математические методы.

Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (октябрь)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:42-4-5
Note: Москва
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/emm/home.htm

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  1. Peter Christoffersen & Peter Doyle, 2000. "From Inflation to Growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 421-451, July.
  2. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  3. Polterovich, Victor, 2000. "Civic Culture and Economic Transition in Russia," MPRA Paper 20068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  5. Bruno Merlevede, 2003. "Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(4), pages 649-669, December.
  6. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
  7. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. Roland, G. & Verdier, T., 1997. "Transition and the Output Fall," DELTA Working Papers 97-09, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  9. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May.
  10. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
  11. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  12. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.
  13. Derek C Jones, 1998. "The Economic Effects of Privatization: Evidence from a Russian Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 75-102, July.
  14. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  15. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996. "Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience," MPRA Paper 20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Murrell Peter & Wang Yijiang, 1993. "When Privatization Should Be Delayed: The Effect of Communist Legacies on Organizational and Institutional Reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 385-406, June.
  18. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  19. Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
  21. Michael Alexeev & William Pyle, 2002. "A Note on Measuring the Unofficial Economy in the Former Soviet Republics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0230, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  22. Shleifer, Andrei, 1997. "Government in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 385-410, April.
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