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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад

  • Катышев П.К.
  • Полтерович В.М.

Выдвигается и аргументируется гипотеза о том, что масштабы трансформационного спада в переходных экономиках в последнем десятилетии XX в. определялись не только предрефор-менными начальными условиями, но и политикой приватизации. Приведены результаты регрессионных расчетов, подтверждающие эту гипотезу. Показано, что потери ВВП за 9 лет после начала реформ были тем больше, чем радикальнее осуществлялась приватизация в начале реформ. Расчеты показывают также, что правительства выбирали начальные темпы либерализации цен и внешней торговли, учитывая начальные условия. Этим, возможно, объясняется тот факт, что в регрессиях темпы либерализации оказываются незначимыми.

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Article provided by Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ) in its journal Экономика и математические методы.

Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (октябрь)

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Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:42-4-5
Note: Москва
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  16. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  17. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Murrell Peter & Wang Yijiang, 1993. "When Privatization Should Be Delayed: The Effect of Communist Legacies on Organizational and Institutional Reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 385-406, June.
  19. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
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