Extending The EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade And Real Wage Effects
In this paper we address the question of the impact of permitting free migration in an enlarged trading bloc. We estimate two sectoral equations for trade flows and real wages of three regional blocs of the enlarged EU that we defined as North (wealthiest EU), South (Greece, Portugal and Spain) and East (acceding Central and Eastern European countries). We then use the estimated coefficients to compute potential trade flows and real wages for these three groups under the two alternative scenarios of an enlargement with and without free movement of labour. A fully-fledge Single Market allows the North, with good market access and human capital endowments, to consolidate its current hub position by attracting more firms and skilled workers. Thus its net exports of high scale economy, skill-intensive goods increase and so do overall real wages, though they decrease in low scale economies sectors. The South, with poor market access and human capital endowments, retains competitiveness in low scale economies, low skill-intensity sectors and sees an overall reduction in real wages, except in high scale economies, low skill-intensity sectors. The East, with poor market access but well endowed in human capital, has a marginal gain in trade terms but suffers a real wage loss. Moreover, skilled migration would cause a brain drain that, if of sufficiently large proportions, could have very damaging consequences in the long-term.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||17 Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.aspEmail:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
- Redding, Stephen J. & Venables, Anthony J, 2000.
"Economic Geography and International Inequality,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," International Trade 0103003, EconWPA.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp0495, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic geography and international inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3714, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Paul Krugman, 1990.
"Increasing Returns and Economic Geography,"
NBER Working Papers
3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buch, Claudia M. & Piazolo, Daniel, 2001.
"Capital and trade flows in Europe and the impact of enlargement,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 183-214, September.
- Claudia M. Buch & Daniel Piazolo, 2000. "Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement," Kiel Working Papers 1001, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Cadot, Olivier & de Melo, Jaime, 1994. "The Europe Agreements and EC-LDC Relations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June.
- Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot, 1999.
"Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen,"
Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1168.
- Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot & Lionel Fontagné, 1999. "Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1139-1168.
- Anthony Venables, 2001.
"Geography and International Inequalities: The Impact of New Technologies,"
Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade,
Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 135-159, June.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Geography and International Inequalities: the Impact of New Technologies," CEP Discussion Papers dp0507, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991.
"The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
- Maurel, Mathilde & Cheikbossian, Guillaume, 1998.
"The New Geography of Eastern European Trade,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 45-71.
- Baldwin, R.E. & Forslid, R. & Haaland, J.I. & Knarvik, K.H.M., 2000. "EU Integration and Outsiders. A Simulation Study of industrial Location," Papers 2/2000, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Gary L. Hunt & Richard E. Mueller, 2002. "A Methodology for Estimating Returns to Skills for Canadian Provinces and U.S. States," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 127-143.
- H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005.
"Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
- Hanson, G.H., 1999. "`Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," Working Papers 439, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Gordon H. Hanson, 1998. "Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," NBER Working Papers 6429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521088237 is not listed on IDEAS
- Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2002. "Human capital and wages: evidence for external effects from the UK regions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 843-846.
- Dieter Schumacher, 1995.
"Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labour with Eastern Europe,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
116, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Schumacher, D., 1995. "Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labor with Eastern Europe," Papers 6, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
- Vittas, H. & Mauro, P., 1995. "Potential Trade with Core and Periphery: Industry Differences in Trade Patterns," Papers 10, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
- Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
- Nicolas Péridy & Michael Frudenberg & Lionel Fontagné, 1998. "Commerce international et structures de marché : une vérification empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 135(4), pages 147-167.
- Corado, Cristina, 1994. "Textiles and Clothing Trade with Central and Eastern Europe: Impact on Members of the EC," CEPR Discussion Papers 1004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
- Hanson, Gordon H, 1997. "Increasing Returns, Trade and the Regional Structure of Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 113-33, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.