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Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells

Die ostdeutschen Bundesländer könnten aufgrund ihrer geographischen Standortgunst zu den Gewinnern der EU-Osterweiterung zählen und von einer weiteren Intensivierung des Ost-West-Handels überproportional profitieren. Um die Folgen eines erweiterten europäischen Binnenmarkts für die deutschen Regionen empirisch abzuschätzen, wird in diesem Beitrag ein Gravitationsmodell zu den Handelsvolumina der deutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien von 1991 bis 2002 geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen die vom Gravitationsansatz postulierten Zusammenhänge, dass eine Zunahme im Pro-Kopf-Einkommen auch zu einer Zunahme der Handelsströme führt und sich mit steigender geographischer Distanz das Handelsvolumen reduziert. Dies zeigt, dass die ostdeutschen Länder stärker von einer Handelsintensivierung profitieren als die westdeutschen, wenn sich der Einkommens-Konvergenzprozess der beiden Nachbarländer Polen und Tschechien weiter fortsetzt. Allerdings scheinen die neuen Länder in der Vergangenheit nicht nur einen Vorsprung im Handel mit den ehemaligen RGW-Partnern verspielt zu haben, sondern tendenziell ihr Handelspotential, das ihnen aufgrund ihrer Größe, Wirtschaftskraft und räumlichen Nähe zukommen sollte, nicht vollständig auszuschöpfen.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 72 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 565-578

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:72-40-7
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  1. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Robert Feenstra, 2003. "Integration Of Trade And Disintegration Of Production In The Global Economy," Working Papers 986, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  3. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
  4. Jakab, Zoltan M. & Kovacs, Mihaly A. & Oszlay, Andras, 2001. "How Far Has Trade Integration Advanced?: An Analysis of the Actual and Potential Trade of Three Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 276-292, June.
  5. Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
  6. Buch, Claudia M. & Kleinert, Jorn & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "The distance puzzle: on the interpretation of the distance coefficient in gravity equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 293-298, June.
  7. Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
  8. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June.
  9. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2002. "Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(01), pages 15-23, 01.
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