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Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells

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  • Björn Alecke

Abstract

Die ostdeutschen Bundesländer könnten aufgrund ihrer geographischen Standortgunst zu den Gewinnern der EU-Osterweiterung zählen und von einer weiteren Intensivierung des Ost-West-Handels überproportional profitieren. Um die Folgen eines erweiterten europäischen Binnenmarkts für die deutschen Regionen empirisch abzuschätzen, wird in diesem Beitrag ein Gravitationsmodell zu den Handelsvolumina der deutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien von 1991 bis 2002 geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen die vom Gravitationsansatz postulierten Zusammenhänge, dass eine Zunahme im Pro-Kopf-Einkommen auch zu einer Zunahme der Handelsströme führt und sich mit steigender geographischer Distanz das Handelsvolumen reduziert. Dies zeigt, dass die ostdeutschen Länder stärker von einer Handelsintensivierung profitieren als die westdeutschen, wenn sich der Einkommens-Konvergenzprozess der beiden Nachbarländer Polen und Tschechien weiter fortsetzt. Allerdings scheinen die neuen Länder in der Vergangenheit nicht nur einen Vorsprung im Handel mit den ehemaligen RGW-Partnern verspielt zu haben, sondern tendenziell ihr Handelspotential, das ihnen aufgrund ihrer Größe, Wirtschaftskraft und räumlichen Nähe zukommen sollte, nicht vollständig auszuschöpfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:72-40-7
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.72.4.565
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2002. "Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(01), pages 15-23, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 84, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Michael Knogler & Volkhart Vincentz, 2005. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die Arbeitsmärkte der neuen Mitgliedstaaten und der EU-15, insbesondere Deutschland," Working Papers 257, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    3. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schäffler, Johannes & Hecht, Veronika & Moritz, Michael, 2014. "Regional determinants of German FDI in the Czech Republic : evidence from a gravity model approach," IAB Discussion Paper 201403, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Timo Mitze, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_22, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0084 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0083 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mitze, Timo, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 83, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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