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Bright past, shady future? Past and potential future export performance of CEE countries in a comparative perspective

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  • Jože Damijan
  • Črt Kostevc
  • Matija Rojec

Abstract

In this paper we examine the reasons behind the remarkable export performance of transition economies in the last two decades. Following Redding and Venables (2004, 2004a) and Fugazza (2004), we decompose export performance into the gains due to the advantageous access to foreign markets and export gains on the side of the internal supply capacity. We find that size of the economy, inward FDI penetration, most notably in the manufacturing sector, export unit values, denoting the structural changes of CEECs' exports, and the quality of institutions and infrastructure had significant positive impact on exporting country's supply capacity, while productivity had a negative impact. The latter is mostly due to unfavourable trends in ULC since the accession. Unlike in EU-15 and BRIC countries, the internal supply capacity is becoming decreasingly important as base of CEECs export performance. At the same time, trends in cost competitiveness are worsening relative to competing countries, while benefits of EU accession have been mostly exploited. This may compromise the CEECs' future export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jože Damijan & Črt Kostevc & Matija Rojec, 2013. "Bright past, shady future? Past and potential future export performance of CEE countries in a comparative perspective," LICOS Discussion Papers 33413, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  • Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:33413
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya Bolotov & Kateřina Gajdušková, 2013. "Srovnání otevřenosti trhů Brazílie, Ruska, Indie a Číny a zemí střední a východní Evropy," Současná Evropa, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3), pages 9-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports performance; supply capacity; foreign market access; Central and Eastern European countries;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • P30 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General

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