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Bright past, shady future? Past and potential future export performance of CEE countries in a comparative perspective

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  • Jože Damijan
  • Črt Kostevc
  • Matija Rojec

Abstract

This article examines the reasons behind the remarkable export performance of transition economies in the last two decades. Following Redding and Venables and Fugazza, we decompose export performance into the gains due to the advantageous access to foreign markets and export gains on the basis of internal supply capacity. We find that size of the economy, inward FDI penetration, most notably in the manufacturing sector, export unit values, denoting the structural changes of CEECs' exports, and the quality of institutions and infrastructure had a significant positive impact on exporting countries' supply capacity, while productivity had a negative impact. The latter is mostly due to unfavourable trends in ULC since EU accession. Unlike in EU-15 and BRIC countries, internal supply capacity is becoming decreasingly important as a basis of CEECs' export performance. At the same time, trends in cost competitiveness are worsening relative to competing countries, while benefits of EU accession have been mostly exploited. This may compromise the CEECs' future export growth.

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  • Jože Damijan & Črt Kostevc & Matija Rojec, 2015. "Bright past, shady future? Past and potential future export performance of CEE countries in a comparative perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 306-335, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:27:y:2015:i:3:p:306-335
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2015.1055965
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    1. N/A, 2003. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 184(1), pages 9-35, April.
    2. N/A, 2003. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 185(1), pages 9-16, July.
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    4. Gu, Weishi & Awokuse, Titus O. & Yuan, Yan, 2008. "The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China's Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6453, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kulbacki Michał & Michalczuk Adrian, 2021. "Regional trade integration in Central and Eastern Europe: State of play after 15 years of EU membership," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 43(1), pages 225-250, May.
    3. Kerner, Philip & Kalthaus, Martin & Wendler, Tobias, 2023. "Economic growth and the use of natural resources: assessing the moderating role of institutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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