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The outlook for EU expansion: results of aggregate and regional economic studies

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  • Björn Alecke
  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

In contrast to the financial requirements of EU enlargement, the non-monetary advantages and disadvantages are difficult to determine. In this article, Dr. Björn Alecke and Dr. Gerhard Untiedt, Gesellschaft für Finanz- und Regionalanalyse (GEFRA), Münster, present the results of their study, which, with the help of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, attempts to determine the economic effect of the changes in trade, agricultural and structural policies induced by EU eastward expansion. Three important results have been identified in all investigations. First, the impact of EU expansion will be much stronger for the EU candidates in Central and Eastern Europe than for the current EU member states. Second, the current member states will also experience welfare gains on the whole. Third, the welfare gains for the current member states are scattered in regional and sectoral terms. As a rule, the welfare gains are greater the larger the share in trade of the countries or regions with the CEE states. This, in turn, is a function of spatial proximity. In contrast to regional distribution, it is impossible to clearly predict the sectoral distribution of welfare gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2002. "The outlook for EU expansion: results of aggregate and regional economic studies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(01), pages 15-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:01:p:15-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, D. & Deardorff & A. & Djankov, S. & Stern, R., 1995. "An Economic Assessment of the Integration of Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland into the European Union," Papers 8, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
    2. Bretschger Lucas, 1999. "Dynamik der realwirtschaftlichen Integration am Beispiel der EU-Osterweiterung / On the Dynamics of Economic Integration: The Case of the EU Eastern Enlargement," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 218(3-4), pages 276-293, June.
    3. Black,Stanley W., 2008. "Europe's Economy Looks East," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521088237.
    4. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
    5. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Boede & Michaela Fuchs & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35.
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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
    2. Grömling, Michael & Römer, Christof, 2004. "Die Wirtschaftsbeziehungen Deutschlands mit Mittel- und Osteuropa," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 9-14.
    3. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2003. "EU Eastern enlargement and regional competitiveness," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(22), pages 10-17, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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