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Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse

Author

Listed:
  • Björn Alecke
  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

Im Gegensatz zum Finanzierungsbedarf der EU-Osterweiterung sind die realwirtschaftlichen Vor- und Nachteile empirisch nur schwer zu bestimmen. In diesem Beitrag stellen Dr. Björn Alecke und Dr. Gerhard Untiedt, Gesellschaft für Finanz- und Regionalanalysen (GEFRA), Münster, die Ergebnisse der Studien vor, die versuchen, mit Hilfe von so genannten Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-Modellen die ökonomischen Auswirkungen von durch die EU-Osterweiterung induzierten Änderungen in der Handels-, Agrar- oder Strukturpolitik zu ermitteln. Drei wichtige Ergebnisse, die sich in allen Untersuchungen zeigen, sind: Erstens fallen die Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer sehr viel stärker aus als auf die gegenwärtigen EU-Mitgliedsländer. Zweitens ergeben sich auch für die gegenwärtigen Mitgliedstaaten insgesamt Wohlfahrtsgewinne. Und drittens streuen die Wohlfahrtsgewinne in den gegenwärtigen Mitgliedsländern stark in regionaler wie sektoraler Hinsicht. In der Regel zeigt sich, dass die Wohlfahrtsgewinne umso größer ausfallen, je größer die Handelsanteile der Länder bzw. Regionen mit den MOEL sind. Diese wiederum sind eine Funktion der räumlichen Nähe. Im Gegensatz zur regionalen Verteilung kann eine eindeutige Aussage zur sektoralen Verteilung der Wohlfahrtsgewinne nicht getroffen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2002. "Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(01), pages 15-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:01:p:15-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
    2. Grömling, Michael & Römer, Christof, 2004. "Die Wirtschaftsbeziehungen Deutschlands mit Mittel- und Osteuropa," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 9-14.
    3. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2003. "EU-Osterweiterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(22), pages 10-17, November.

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    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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