Dynamik der realwirtschaftlichen Integration am Beispiel der EU-Osterweiterung / On the Dynamics of Economic Integration: The Case of the EU Eastern Enlargement

The paper surveys in a coherent framework the consequences of economic integration on longterm growth. It turns out that the dynamic effects of integration may exceed the effects of comparative- statics, once the positive spillovers of capital accumulation are taken into account. However, the introduction of multi-sector models and of environmental restrictions for economic development demonstrates that the long-term impact of integration cannot always be assumed to be positive. In contrast, negative dynamic impact of integration are predicted under certain conditions. First, integration may cause a resource reallocation from dynamic to static sectors of the economy which can harm the long-term growth rate. Second, integration may increase the welfare loss which is due to negative environmental externalities of the economy. To evaluate the probability of positive and dynamic losses from trade, the paper focuses on the incentives of capital accumulation under different model set-ups. As a result, it emerges that negative resource reallocation effects are the more likely, the less trading partners are supplied with skilled labour, the less intensive international knowledge diffusion is and the smaller substitution possibilities between the labour inputs and between natural resources and knowledge are. These cases are assumed to be relevant for the evaluation of the EU Eastern enlargement.