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Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen

Author

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  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Michaël Pajot
  • Michael Freudenberg

Abstract

[fre] La réorientation des échanges des pays en transition vers l'Union européenne pose deux questions. Les niveaux d'échanges déjà atteints seront-ils dépassés ? Comment le degré de spécialisation va-t-il évoluer ? Les modèles de gravitation en panel apportent des réponses. Le potentiel de commerce de court terme est déjà rempli pour plusieurs pays. À moyen terme, l'accession devrait avoir un effet limité et asymétrique sur les échanges, au détriment des pays en transition. L'accession aura surtout pour effet de modifier la nature du commerce, au bénéfice des échan­ges intra-branche de produits différenciés verticalement. À plus long terme, une fois les ajustements structurels effectués, le commerce pourrait augmenter dans des proportions importantes. [eng] The changing patterns of CEECs' external trade flows raise two questions. First, has the trade potential with Europe already been exhausted? Second, how will the degree of specialisation change in the future? Gravity models estimated using panel data provide answers to both questions. The short-term trade potential is largely exhausted for numerous countries. The perspective of enlargement of the EU will be associated with only a slight additional asymmetric increase in trade flows, detrimental to the CEECs. However, trade types will change in depth as a result of the future enlargement. The share of intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated products will be boosted, while inter-industry trade will shrink. In the long run however, all structural adjustments being completed, trade flows could increase in larger proportions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Pajot & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1168.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1999_num_50_6_410137
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1999.410137
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leandro Rothmuller, 2003. "Does FDI Matter for Trade in Brazil? An Application of the Gravity Model," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c71, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. FAÍÑA J.Andrés & LÓPEZ-RODRÍGUEZ Jesus, "undated". "Population Potentials and Development Levels: Empirical Findings in the European Union," EcoMod2003 330700050, EcoMod.
    3. J. Caetano & A. Galego & E. Vaz & C. Vieira & I. Vieira, 2002. "The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone: Trade and FDI," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp07, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    4. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
    5. Angela Cheptea, 2013. "Border Effects and European Integration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-305, June.
    6. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "Extending the EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade and Real Wage Effects," Discussion Paper Series 2003_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2003.
    7. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Pajot & Jean-Michel Pasteels, 2002. "Potentiels de commerce entre économies hétérogènes : un petit mode d'emploi des modèles de gravité," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 115-139.
    8. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
    9. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "How different is Eastern Europe? Structure and determinants of location choices by French firms in Eastern and Western Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 280-296, June.
    10. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Pajot, 1999. "Investissement direct à l'étranger et échanges extérieurs : un impact plus fort aux États-Unis qu'en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 326(1), pages 71-95.

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