German dominance in the European Monetary System: Evidence from money supply growth rates
This paper presents further evidence on ostensible German dominance in the European Monetary System (EMS). A dynamic system of equations is built explaining money growth rates as a function of the EMS countries' money growth rates, the world money growth rate, exchange rate objectives, inflation rates, and real income growth rates. A test of German dominance based upon money growth rates is a test of the hypothesis that the EMS has increased the comovements of money demand between countries in the system. It is found that German independence holds, but other central banks can also be important players in the system in that they can conduct independent monetary policies. Monetary policies in the EMS are best characterized as interactive. Therefore, the strict German dominance hypothesis is rejected. It follows that the EMS has not increased significantly the link between money demand functions in the EMS countries in the â€œhierarchicalâ€ structure as claimed by the dominance argument. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1991
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- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
- Urbain, J. P., 1989. "Model selection criteria and granger causality tests : An empirical note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 317-320.
- Melvin, Michael, 1985. "Currency Substitution and Western European Monetary Unification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(205), pages 79-91, February.
- Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February.
- Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
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