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Investor Herding and Spillovers in African Debt Markets

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  • Hanan Morsy
  • Eman Moustafa
  • Tiguene Nabassaga
  • Mustafa Yenice

Abstract

Using high-frequency data for sovereign long-term bond yields and five-year credit default swap spreads, we estimate a regression model to identify a nonlinear link between cross-section deviation of market yield and extreme movements in African markets and other regions. Results indicate that African sovereign bonds have been subject to herding. International investors tend to lump African sovereign bonds into one asset class, pricing risk based on regional market performance instead of individual countries' performance. Moreover, we find evidence of herding spillovers from other regions. Africa is the most vulnerable of developing regions to shifts in market sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanan Morsy & Eman Moustafa & Tiguene Nabassaga & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "Investor Herding and Spillovers in African Debt Markets," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 607-610, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:607-10
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    2. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market stress and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 585-616, September.
    3. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
    4. Özatay, Fatih & Özmen, Erdal & Sahinbeyoglu, Gülbin, 2009. "Emerging market sovereign spreads, global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 526-531, March.
    5. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    2. Mamidala, Vasanthi & Kumari, Pooja, 2023. "Investigating herding severity in different NFT categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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