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Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

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  • Avdjiev, Stefan
  • Hardy, Bryan
  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Serv�n, Luis

Abstract

We construct a new data set for gross capital inflows during 1996-2014 for 85 countries at a quarterly frequency. We decompose debt inflows by borrower type: banks, corporates and sovereigns. Using our new data, we present dynamic and cross sectional patterns in capital inflows as a function of global push factors and countries' own business cycles. This exercise reveals that patterns evident in aggregate capital flows data do not hold up consistently across different borrower types. When global risk appetite is low, as proxied by high VIX, capital flows into banks and corporates decline both in advanced economies (AE) and in emerging markets (EM). This is also true for EM sovereigns but not for AE, whose sovereign borrowing does not respond to VIX. Banks' and corporates' borrowing, both in EM and in AE are procyclical, whereas EM's sovereigns exhibit counter-cyclical borrowing. Capital inflows are procyclical in all assets classes except for portfolio debt inflows to EM, which exhibit a countercyclical pattern driven mainly by EM sovereigns and to some extent by EM corporates. Our results highlight the importance of separating capital flows by borrower type for understanding potential systemic risks related to capital flows, and show the difficulty of establishing robust stylized facts about capital flows' dynamics in a mixed sample of emerging and advanced countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Avdjiev, Stefan & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Serv�n, Luis, 2017. "Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11806
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    Cited by:

    1. Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019. "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 384-403.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00547 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:03:n:s179399331750017x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    5. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    6. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 2017-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    7. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2019. "China's overseas lending," Kiel Working Papers 2132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2016. "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 22751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bryan Hardy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks and real outcomes," BIS Working Papers 758, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Pierre De Leo & Vito Cormun, 2017. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations: The Role of Spillovers of U.S. News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hyunju Lee, 2018. "Gross Capital Flows and International Diversification," 2018 Meeting Papers 51, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Vahagn Galstyan & Caroline Mehigan & Rogelio Mercado, 2017. "The Currency Composition of International Portfolio Assets," Trinity Economics Papers tep1017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," BIS Working Papers 627, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Tomas Williams & Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2018. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2018-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, revised Sep 2018.

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