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How ETFs amplify the global financial cycle in emerging markets

Author

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  • Nathan Converse

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella/The Brookings Institution)

  • Tomas Williams

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging market funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global financial conditions. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the global financial cycle in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2021. "How ETFs amplify the global financial cycle in emerging markets," Working Papers 57, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:57
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    2. Fraiberger, Samuel P. & Lee, Do & Puy, Damien & Ranciere, Romain, 2021. "Media sentiment and international asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Alomari, Mohammed & Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Ko, Hee-Un & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers in higher moments and jumps across ETFs and economic and financial uncertainty factors in the context of successive shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 210-228.
    5. Marszk, Adam & Lechman, Ewa, 2021. "Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bozhechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena Vladimirovna (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена Владимировна), 2016. "The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Loans to the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Current Environment [Влияние Высоких Процентных Ставок По Заимствованиям На Экономический Рост Р," Working Papers 21310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    10. Tomas Williams & Sergio Schmukler & Mauricio Larrain & Charles Calomiris, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," Working Papers 2019-15, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    12. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Linda S. Goldberg, 2022. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," Speech 95155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Duffy, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A., 2021. "The impact of ETFs in secondary asset markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 674-696.
    16. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Ichiue, Hibiki & Oura, Hiroko, 2022. "Changes in the global investor base and the stability of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    18. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Hernández Juan R. & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "Capital Flows to Emerging Economies and Global Risk Aversion during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2021-17, Banco de México.
    19. Gabor, Daniela, 2020. "The Wall Street Consensus," SocArXiv wab8m, Center for Open Science.
    20. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2019. "The Impact of ETFs on Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 154, Peruvian Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange-traded funds mutual funds global financial cycle global risk push and pull factors capital flows emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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