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Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions

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  • Souknilanh Keola
  • Kazunobu Hayakawa

Abstract

This study empirically investigates how much economic and social activities were decreased by the implementation of lockdown policies during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. We measure the magnitude of those activities using nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions. Our observations include daily NO2 emissions in 173 countries from January 1 to July 31, 2020. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Lockdown policies significantly decreased NO2 emissions in low‐income countries during policy and post‐policy periods. In high‐income countries, however, NO2 emissions increased during both periods. In addition, the absolute impact of lockdown policies was larger during the post‐policy period than during the policy period. While the stay‐at‐home policy reduced NO2 emissions, we did not discover robust differences between regions in its effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Souknilanh Keola & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 178-205, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:59:y:2021:i:2:p:178-205
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.12274
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jin, Guangzhu & Huang, Zhenhui, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of renewable electricity consumption and industrialization on environmental sustainability: Evidence through the lens of load capacity factor," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-522.
    4. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh, 2021. "How is the Asian economy recovering from COVID-19? Evidence from the emissions of air pollutants," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Alonso-Robisco, Andres & Carbo, Jose Manuel & Kormanyos, Emily & Triebskorn, Elena, 2026. "Houston, we have a problem: Can satellite information bridge the climate-related data gap?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 7(1).
    6. I-Chun Tsai, 2025. "Has the outbreak of COVID-19 changed the carbon market?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 1-38, February.
    7. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Kuwamori, 2021. "Introduction to the Special Issue on “How Does COVID‐19 Change the World Economy?”," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 121-125, June.
    8. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. David Newhouse & Swindle,Rachel & Wang,Shun & Joshua David Merfeld & Utz Johann Pape & Kibrom Tafere & Michael Weber, 2024. "How Well Did Real-Time Indicators Track Household Welfare Changes in Developing Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10916, The World Bank.
    10. Oudom Hean & Nattanicha Chairassamee, 2021. "Household consumption expenditure in Thailand during the first COVID-19 lockdown," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 28(2), pages 1-37, December.
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    12. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Meunier, Baptiste & Macalos, Joao & Milis, Julia & Pical, Thomas, 2026. "Can satellites predict oil demand?," Working Paper Series 3198, European Central Bank.

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