IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9291.html

Examining the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India through Daily Electricity Consumption and Nighttime Light Intensity

Author

Listed:
  • Beyer,Robert Carl Michael
  • Franco Bedoya,Sebastian
  • Galdo,Virgilio

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity in India. Adjusting policies to contain trans- mission while mitigating the economic impact requires an assessment of the economic situation in near real-time and at high spatial granularity. This paper shows that daily electricity consumption and monthly nighttime light intensity can proxy for economic activity in India. Energy consumption is compared with the predictions of a consumption model that explains 90 percent of the variation in normal times. Energy consumption declined strongly after a national lockdown was implemented on March 25, 2020 and remained a quarter below normal levels throughout April. It recovered somewhat subsequently, but electricity consumption was on average still 13.5 percent lower than normal in May. Not all states and union territories have been affected equally. While electricity consumption halved in some, others were not affected at all. Part of the heterogeneity is explained by the prevalence of manufacturing and return migration. At the district level, higher COVID-19 infection rates were associated with larger declines in nighttime light intensity in April. Together, daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoring economic activity in near real-time and high spatial granularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer,Robert Carl Michael & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian & Galdo,Virgilio, 2020. "Examining the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India through Daily Electricity Consumption and Nighttime Light Intensity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9291, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/763351592916493022/pdf/Examining-the-Economic-Impact-of-COVID-19-in-India-through-Daily-Electricity-Consumption-and-Nighttime-Light-Intensity.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Mahendra Dev & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Covid-19: Impact on the Indian economy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2007. "The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2611-2621, April.
    3. Gibson, John & Datt, Gaurav & Murgai, Rinku & Ravallion, Martin, 2017. "For India’s Rural Poor, Growing Towns Matter More Than Growing Cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 413-429.
    4. World Bank, 2020. "India Development Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34367, The World Bank Group.
    5. Sophia Chen & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Nicola Pierri & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2020. "Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2020/125, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    7. Chanda, Areendam & Kabiraj, Sujana, 2020. "Shedding light on regional growth and convergence in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Henderson, Vernon & Squires, Tim & Storeygard, Adam & Weil, David, 2018. "The global distribution of economic activity: nature, history, and the role of trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 79709, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Gita Gopinath & Prachi Mishra & Abhinav Narayanan, 2020. "Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 57-103.
    10. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2016. "Lights, Camera … Income! Illuminating the National Accounts-Household Surveys Debate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 579-631.
    11. Lyu, Changjiang & Wang, Kemin & Zhang, Frank & Zhang, Xin, 2018. "GDP management to meet or beat growth targets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 318-338.
    12. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    13. Galdo, Virgilio & Li, Yue & Rama, Martin, 2021. "Identifying urban areas by combining human judgment and machine learning: An application to India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Marcy Burchfield & Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga & Matthew A. Turner, 2006. "Causes of Sprawl: A Portrait from Space," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 587-633.
    15. Beyer,Robert Carl Michael & Chhabra,Esha & Galdo,Virgilio & Rama,Martin G., 2018. "Measuring districts'monthly economic activity from outer space," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8523, The World Bank.
    16. Ferguson, Ross & Wilkinson, William & Hill, Robert, 2000. "Electricity use and economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 923-934, November.
    17. Keola, Souknilanh & Andersson, Magnus & Hall, Ola, 2015. "Monitoring Economic Development from Space: Using Nighttime Light and Land Cover Data to Measure Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 322-334.
    18. J Vernon Henderson & Tim Squires & Adam Storeygard & David Weil, 2018. "The Global Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade1," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 357-406.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2020. "India Development Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34367, The World Bank Group.
    2. Patrick Lehnert & Michael Niederberger & Uschi Backes-Gellner & Eric Bettinger, 2020. "Proxying Economic Activity with Daytime Satellite Imagery: Filling Data Gaps Across Time and Space," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0165, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Sep 2022.
    3. Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulus & Elias Papaioannou & Tanner Regan, 2025. "Illuminating the Global South," Working Papers 2025-009, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    4. Dickinson, Jeffrey, 2020. "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: What Drives Human-Made Light?," MPRA Paper 103504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Baragwanath, Kathryn & Goldblatt, Ran & Hanson, Gordon & Khandelwal, Amit K., 2021. "Detecting urban markets with satellite imagery: An application to India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Bluhm, Richard & Krause, Melanie, 2022. "Top lights: Bright cities and their contribution to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Chanda, Areendam & Cook, C. Justin, 2022. "Was India’s demonetization redistributive? Insights from satellites and surveys," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Tanner Regan & Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2023. "Illuminating Africa?," Working Papers 2023-11, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    9. Andres García-Suaza & Daniela Varela, 2024. "Nightlight, landcover and buildings: understanding intracity socioeconomic differences," Documentos de Trabajo 21025, Universidad del Rosario.
    10. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Sanders, Mark & Schippers, Vincent & Steinwachs, Thomas, 2022. "The economic impact of weather anomalies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Chanda, Areendam & Kabiraj, Sujana, 2020. "Shedding light on regional growth and convergence in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Geua Boe‐Gibson, 2020. "Night Lights In Economics: Sources And Uses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 955-980, December.
    14. Bibek Adhikari & Saroj Dhital, 2021. "Decentralization and regional convergence: Evidence from night‐time lights data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1066-1088, July.
    15. d'Aspremont, Alexandre & Ben Arous, Simon & Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Lietti, Benjamin & Meunier, Baptiste, 2025. "Satellites turn “concrete”: Tracking cement with satellite data and neural networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    16. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Sanders, Mark & Schippers, Vincent & Steinwachs, Thomas, 2018. "Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181556, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Aneli Bongers & Benedetto Molinari & Sebastien Rouillon & Jose L. Torres, 2024. "The foundations of the economics of the outer space: A premier overview," Space Economics Working Papers 01-2024, Institute for Space Economics, revised Aug 2024.
    18. Bluhm, Richard & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Strange, Austin M. & Tierney, Michael J., 2025. "Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Christian Düben & Melanie Krause, 2021. "Population, light, and the size distribution of cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 189-211, January.
    20. Miguel Fajardo-Steinhauser, 2023. "Peace Dividends: The Economic Effects of Colombia's Peace Agreement," Papers 2301.01843, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.