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Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Askitas
  • Konstantinos Tatsiramos
  • Bertrand Verheyden

Abstract

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of Covid-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. Taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions, we remove concurrent policy bias from the effect of each policy of interest, and we establish that policies curb the epidemic by changing population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiologically relevant considerations. We are thus able to shed light on the mechanisms through which confinement measures contribute to “flattening the curve”.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Askitas & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Bertrand Verheyden, 2020. "Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8338, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8338
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. repec:aei:rpaper:1008563887 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; 2019 novel coronavirus; pandemic; mobility; confinement measures; lockdown; quarantine; transmission; behaviour; incidence; compliance; non-pharmaceutical interventions; NPI; basic reproduction number; R0; SIR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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