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Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and Covid-19

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Listed:
  • Nikolaos Askitas
  • Konstantinos Tatsiramos
  • Bertrand Verheyden

Abstract

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of Covid-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. Taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions, we remove concurrent policy bias from the effect of each policy of interest, and we establish that policies curb the epidemic by changing population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiologically relevant considerations. We are thus able to shed light on the mechanisms through which confinement measures contribute to “flattening the curve”.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Askitas & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Bertrand Verheyden, 2020. "Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8338, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8338
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2020. "On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Martin Huber & Henrika Langen, 2020. "Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-19, December.
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    8. Stephen Eubank & Hasan Guclu & V. S. Anil Kumar & Madhav V. Marathe & Aravind Srinivasan & Zoltán Toroczkai & Nan Wang, 2004. "Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6988), pages 180-184, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; 2019 novel coronavirus; pandemic; mobility; confinement measures; lockdown; quarantine; transmission; behaviour; incidence; compliance; non-pharmaceutical interventions; NPI; basic reproduction number; R0; SIR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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