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Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis

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  • Martín Gonzalez-Eiras
  • Dirk Niepelt

Abstract

We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that offer similar degrees of “realism” and exibility. We provide results connecting the different models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected spread of Covid-19 in the United States to exemplify our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2020. "Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8342, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8342
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. repec:aei:rpaper:1008561701 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2020. "On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 26867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2022. "The political economy of early COVID-19 interventions in US states," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Dirk Niepelt & Mart n Gonzalez-Eiras, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Diskussionsschriften dp2019, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    4. Mart n Gonzales-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt, 2023. "Optimal Epidemic Control," Diskussionsschriften dp2311, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    epidemiology; SIR model; logistic model; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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