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Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis

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  • Hamid Faruqee
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Dirk Muir
  • Paolo Pesenti

Abstract

In the evolving debate and analysis of global imbalances, a commonly overlooked issue pertains to rising protectionism. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of trade policy changes through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy encompassing four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are carried out to consider the imposition of uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the case of tariff retaliation. We also discuss a scenario in which a 'globalization backlash' lowers the degree of competition in import-competing sectors, and compare the implications of higher markups in the product and labor markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis," NBER Working Papers 12704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12704
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    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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