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Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy

Author

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  • Luciana Juvenal, Luciana

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)

  • Santos Monteiro, Paulo

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Substantial evidence suggests that countries or regions with stronger trade linkages tend to have business cycles that are more synchronized. The standard international business cycle framework cannot replicate this nding. In this paper, we study a multi-country model of international trade with vertical trade linkages, imperfect competition, and variable markups. We embed it in a real business cycle framework by including aggregate technology shocks and allowing for a variable labor supply. A carefully calibrated version of the theoretical economy that ts the model to data on the bilateral trade volume between 210 distinct country-pairs explains between 20 and 41 percent of the relation between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization. We provide empirical evidence supporting the model's predictions for the association between trade costs and business cycle synchronization, and exchange rate volatility and business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciana Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2010. "Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 31, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:31
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/31.2010_santos_monteiro.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
    2. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    3. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    4. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.

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