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A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms

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  • Ulf von Kalckreuth

Abstract

This paper proposes a new framework for studying the effects of monetary policy on business investment. Important ambiguities with the modeling of investment dynamics and interactions between real and financial decisions suggest modeling investment spending as a VAR. Based on a panel of financial statement data for 6,408 German firms (44,345 datapoints) supplemented with user costs of capital and confidential measures of creditworthiness, we generate GMM estimates of a Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM). It contains investment and cash flow as endogenous variables, and the user costs of capital and sales growth as additional explanatory variables. We report four substantive findings. First, monetary policy matters, and business investment is responsive to interest rates embedded in the user cost of capital. Second, allowing real and financial decisions to interact raises the impact of monetary policy by one-third relative to simulations of an investment equation in isolation that assumes an exogenous financial policy. Third, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow shocks is raised by twothirds relative to single equation computations. Fourth, firms with poor credit ratings are "paralysed" in being unable to react to changing economic conditions as given by relative prices or demand. On the other hand and consistent with binding financing constraints, these endangered firms show a high responsiveness to cash flow shocks. Apart from these substantive conclusions, this paper demonstrate that the panel VAR approach is useful for modeling firm dynamics and real/financial interactions and for assessing monetary policy transmission.
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  • Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2004. "A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 107, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:107
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulf von Kalckreuth & Emma Murphy, 2005. "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large panel of survey data," Bank of England working papers 260, Bank of England.
    2. Allard Bruinshoofd, 2003. "Corporate Investment and Financing Constraints: Connections with Cash management," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 110, Netherlands Central Bank.
    3. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
    4. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2005. "Money Growth and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Hyun-Euy Kim, 2007. "The Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Transmission under Low Inflation in Korea (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 13(1), pages 1-56, March.
    7. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Issouf Samaké, 2008. "Investment and Growth Dynamics: An Empirical Assessment Applied to Benin," IMF Working Papers 2008/120, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ulf Von Kalckreuth, 2006. "Financial Constraints and Capacity Adjustment: Evidence from a Large Panel of Survey Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 691-724, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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