IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdp1/4201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms

Author

Listed:
  • von Kalckreuth, Ulf
  • Chirinko, Robert S.
  • Breitung, Jörg

Abstract

This paper proposes a new framework for studying the effects of monetary policy on business investment. Important ambiguities with the modeling of investment dynamics and interactions between real and financial decisions suggest modeling investment spending as a VAR. Based on a panel of financial statement data for 6,408 German firms (44,345 datapoints) supplemented with user costs of capital and confidential measures of creditworthiness, we generate GMM estimates of a Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM). It contains investment and cash flow as endogenous variables, and the user costs of capital and sales growth as additional explanatory variables. We report four substantive findings. First, monetary policy matters, and business investment is responsive to interest rates embedded in the user cost of capital. Second, allowing real and financial decisions to interact raises the impact of monetary policy by one-third relative to simulations of an investment equation in isolation that assumes an exogenous financial policy. Third, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow shocks is raised by twothirds relative to single equation computations. Fourth, firms with poor credit ratings are "paralysed" in being unable to react to changing economic conditions as given by relative prices or demand. On the other hand and consistent with binding financing constraints, these endangered firms show a high responsiveness to cash flow shocks. Apart from these substantive conclusions, this paper demonstrate that the panel VAR approach is useful for modeling firm dynamics and real/financial interactions and for assessing monetary policy transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S. & Breitung, Jörg, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19592/1/200306dkp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1995. "Is bank lending important for the transmission of monetary policy? An overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-11.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Auerbach, Alan J, 1983. "Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 905-940, September.
    4. Fabio Schiantarelli, 1995. "Financial constraints and investment: a critical review of methodological issues and international evidence," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 39, pages 177-226.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.),Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    8. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural Modelling of Financial Constraints on Investment: Where Do We Stand?," Post-Print halshs-00112522, HAL.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.),Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1990. "Why does money affect output? A survey," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.),Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 779-835, Elsevier.
    12. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are Useful: A Comment on Kaplan and Zingales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 695-705.
    13. Chirinko, Robert S., 1997. "Finance Constraints, Liquidity, and Investment Spending: Theoretical Restrictions and International Evidence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 185-207, June.
    14. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Are Not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 707-712.
    15. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    16. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    17. Andrew Benito & Garry Young, 2007. "Financial Pressure and Balance Sheet Adjustment by Firms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(5), pages 581-602, October.
    18. Coen, Robert M, 1969. "Tax Policy and Investment Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 370-379, June.
    19. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Working Paper Research 28, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are \\"deep\\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, revised 1999.
    21. Mojon, Benoît & Agresti, Anna Maria, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    23. Janice C. Eberly & Andrew B. Abel, 2004. "Q Theory Without Adjustment Costs & Cash Flow Effects Without Financing Constraints," 2004 Meeting Papers 205, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Jeff Fuhrer & Arturo Estrella, 1999. "Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 621, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    26. Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December.
    27. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Murphy, Emma, 2005. "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: Evidence from a large panel of survey data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Allard Bruinshoofd, 2003. "Corporate Investment and Financing Constraints: Connections with Cash management," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 110, Netherlands Central Bank.
    3. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
    4. Issouf Samaké, 2008. "Investment and Growth Dynamics; An Empirical Assessment Applied to Benin," IMF Working Papers 08/120, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2005. "Money Growth and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetäre Transmission; Panel VAR's; einzelwirtschaftliche Investitionen; Deutschland; Monetary Policy Transmission; Panel Data VAR's; Firm-Level Investment; Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.