IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i14p11452-d1201231.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Has the Decline in Trade Policy Uncertainty Promoted China’s Agricultural Exports?

Author

Listed:
  • Jie Ma

    (Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Rong Cai

    (Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Weifu Zhang

    (School of International Economics and Business, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

This article describes China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment based on samples from the World Bank database, China Customs database, and China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2000 to 2007 and uses the difference-in-difference (DID) method to investigate the effect of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on China’s agricultural exports. The study found that, first, a decline in TPU significantly increases the export volume of Chinese agricultural firms. Second, the decline in TPU significantly boosts companies engaged in general trade. Regarding export destination countries, the decline in TPU significantly promotes the agricultural firms whose export destination countries are developing countries. Regarding firms’ ownership, the promotion of agricultural exports by non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and Hong Kong-, Macao- and Taiwan-funded enterprises is even more pronounced. Third, the decline in TPU promotes the export of Chinese agricultural firms by alleviating their financing constraints. The study provides new explanations for changes in China’s agricultural exports and enriches research on the evaluation of TPU effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Ma & Rong Cai & Weifu Zhang, 2023. "Has the Decline in Trade Policy Uncertainty Promoted China’s Agricultural Exports?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:11452-:d:1201231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/14/11452/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/14/11452/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Song, Lina, 2011. "Internal finance and growth: Microeconometric evidence on Chinese firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 79-94, September.
    2. Ursula Fritsch & Holger Görg, 2015. "Outsourcing, Importing and Innovation: Evidence from Firm-level Data for Emerging Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 687-714, September.
    3. Beestermöller, Matthias & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2018. "Impact of European food safety border inspections on agri-food exports: Evidence from Chinese firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 66-82.
    4. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Lilik Sugiharti & Rudi Purwono & Miguel Angel Esquivias Padilla, 2020. "Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(4), pages 2676-2695, June.
    6. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. Ferro, Esteban & Otsuki, Tsunehiro & Wilson, John S., 2015. "The effect of product standards on agricultural exports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 68-79.
    9. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco, 2016. "Intellectual Property Rights and International Trade of Agricultural Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    11. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    12. Agustí Segarra-Blasco & Mercedes Teruel & Sebastiano Cattaruzzo, 2022. "Innovation, productivity and learning induced by export across European manufacturing firms," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 387-415, July.
    13. Haichao Fan & Yao Amber Li & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2015. "Trade Liberalization, Quality, and Export Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1033-1051, December.
    14. Michele Imbruno, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-02171715, HAL.
    15. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    16. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    17. Debaere, Peter & Mostashari, Shalah, 2010. "Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 163-169, July.
    18. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Hongbin Cai & Qiao Liu, 2009. "Competition and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Chinese Industrial Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 764-795, April.
    20. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    21. Imbruno, Michele, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 806-826.
    22. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2014. "Exports and Credit Constraints under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 729-744, October.
    23. Gayané Hovakimian, 2009. "Determinants of Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 161-183, March.
    24. Huang, Jikun & Jun, Yang & Xu, Zhigang & Rozelle, Scott & Li, Ninghui, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization and poverty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 244-265.
    25. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    26. Hendy, Rana & Zaki, Chahir, 2021. "Trade facilitation and firms exports: Evidence from customs data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 197-209.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Fan, Haichao & Lai, Edwin L.-C. & (Steffan) Qi, Han, 2019. "Trade liberalization and Firms’ export performance in China: Theory and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 640-668.
    5. Liu, Qing & Li, Yuqing & Li, Shuaihang & Wu, Feifei, 2023. "Lose to gain: Heterogeneous impact of trade policy uncertainty on firms’ domestic sales," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Imbruno, Michele, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 806-826.
    13. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Fan, Haichao & Li, Yao Amber & Yeaple, Stephen R., 2018. "On the relationship between quality and productivity: Evidence from China's accession to the WTO," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-49.
    15. Cheng, Dong & Yu, Jian & Zhang, Dayong & Zheng, Wenping, 2020. "Is heterogeneous capital depreciation important for estimating firm-level productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Atika Benaddi & Peri Silva, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from the Arab League countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1327-1357, November.
    17. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Yan Du & Yi Lu, 2018. "The Great Opening up and the Roadmap for the Future: The Story of China's International Trade," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(2), pages 68-93, March.
    19. Haichao Fan & Edwin L.-C. Lai & Han Steffan Qi, 2016. "Imported-input Trade Liberalization and Firms' Export Performance in China: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5828, CESifo.
    20. Haichao Fan & Tuan Anh Luong & Edwin L‐C. Lai & Lina Zhang, 2022. "Import liberalization and export product mix," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 419-457, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:11452-:d:1201231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.