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The process by which the Dollar will fall: the effect of forward-looking consumers

  • Kuralbayeva, Karlygash
  • Vines, David

This paper extends the analysis of the forthcoming fall in the dollar by Blanchard, Giavazzi and Sà 2005), using a model which incorporates forward-looking consumers. It provides additional underpinnings for the idea of a rapid adjustment in the value of the dollar. We analyze what will happen to the dollar value when forward-looking consumers, in anticipation of the reduction in the current account deficit, cut their consumption. We show that the real interest rate must fall as a result, and that this causes the exchange rate to fall more initially. However we also show that the interest rate does not fall greatly initially, and so that these effects are not large. But they add to pressures causing a rapid fall in the dollar.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7325.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7325
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  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 2005. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2008. "International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 6705, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Working Papers 11589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Benjamin Hunt & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The US Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 399-434, December.
  10. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
  11. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Working Papers 11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
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