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What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?

Author

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  • Marianne Baxter
  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of terms of trade volatility, specifically addressing the relative importance of goods-price effects vs. country-price effects. For fuel exporters, most of the terms of trade variation stems from goods-price effects, as one would have expected, a priori. For commodity exporters, there is great dispersion in the importance of goods price effects vs. country price effects, and no overall generalization is possible. Exporters of manufactured goods face terms of trade variation that appears to be about equally due to goods-price effects and country-price effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," NBER Working Papers 7462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7462 Note: ITI
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
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    4. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    5. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    8. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Knetter, Michael M, 1993. "International Comparisons of Price-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 473-486, June.
    10. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    11. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
    2. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    3. Gabriel Gomes, 2016. "On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    5. Nishat Fatima, 2010. "Analysing the Terms of Trade Effect for Pakistan," Trade Working Papers 22828, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Christian Broda & Cedric Tille, 2003. "Coping with terms-of-trade shocks in developing countries," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Nov).
    7. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
    8. Cedric Tille, 2000. ""Beggar-thy-neighbor" or "beggar-thyself"? the income effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 112, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Patrick A. Imam & Eleonara Granziera & Norbert Funke, 2008. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 08/36, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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