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Risk Reduction in the EMS? Evidence from Trends in Exchange Rate Properties

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  • Michael Frömmel
  • Lukas Menkhoff

Abstract

The performance of the European Monetary System is still being debated. On the subject of exchange rate characteristics it has been claimed that evidence from looking at the statistical properties of the exchange rate distribution indicates an increased risk for agents. Others argue that the apparent success of the EMS is illusory, as it has not performed better than other currencies over the same period. We analyse these propositions by searching for trends in risk of EMS exchange rates and comparing them to outside benchmarks. We find properties indicating decreasing risk and these results also hold when structural breaks are considered. Moreover, this decline seems to be faster than for world benchmarks.

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  • Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2001. "Risk Reduction in the EMS? Evidence from Trends in Exchange Rate Properties," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 285-306, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:39:y:2001:i:2:p:285-306
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5965.00289
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    Cited by:

    1. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    2. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    3. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Thompson, Henry, 2007. "Exchange rates, exchange risk, and Asian export revenue," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 237-254.
    4. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    5. Dick van Dijk & Haris Munandar & Christian Hafner, 2011. "The euro introduction and noneuro currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 95-116.

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