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Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets

  • Christian Wagner

    ()

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Foreign exchange market efficiency is commonly investigated by Fama-regression tests of uncovered interest parity (UIP). In this paper, we conjecture a speculative UIP relationship which implies that exchange rate changes comprise a time-varying risk component in addition to the forward premium.This suggests that the forward premium anomaly reported in previous research potentially stems from omitting this component in UIP tests and that the popular carry-trade strategy can be rationalized to some extent. Moreover, while related work focuses on the Fama-regression slope coefficient, we show that also the intercept is important for judging the economic significance of currency speculation. Empirically, we find support for speculative UIP and the existence of a risk-premium. Furthermore, although carry-traders are able to collect some risk-premia, currency speculation does not yield economically significant excess returns, which suggests that foreign exchange markets are speculatively efficient. Disregarding the Fama-regression constant, however, leads to distortions in the assessment of economic significance and induces spurious rejection of speculative efficiency.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 143.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 15 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:143
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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
  5. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December.
  6. John F. O. Bilson, 1980. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Geert Bekaert, 1994. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hochradl, Markus & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, April.
  10. Barnhart, Scott W. & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1999. "Non-Informative Tests of the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 265-291, June.
  11. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521485845 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  14. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. Giorgio Valente & H. L. Leon & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 06/136, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
  17. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  18. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 963-990, December.
  19. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  20. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  22. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  23. repec:dgr:kubcen:199707 is not listed on IDEAS
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