IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly

  • Baillie, Richard T.
  • Chang, Sanders S.

This paper examines the role of carry trade and momentum trading strategies and their implications for the magnitude of the forward premium anomaly. The formal analysis uses a logistic smooth transition regression, with transition variables related to the different currency trading strategies. The hypothesis of uncovered interest parity is found to hold in an upper regime where carry trades appear profitable on the basis of interest differentials and where exchange rate volatility is high.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386-4181(11)00002-4
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 441-464

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:441-464
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  4. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
  8. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  9. Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics And The Role Of Feedback Traders," Working papers 545, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 0. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
  12. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 6.
  13. Momtchil Pojarliev, 2005. "Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 297-311, October.
  14. Andreas M. Fischer, 2002. "Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?," Working Papers 02.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  15. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  16. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  17. Phillips, Kerk L. & Snow, Karl, 1998. "The forward bias: is it a money tree?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 373-379, December.
  18. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  19. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
  20. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  21. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 963-990, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:441-464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.