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Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly

  • Baillie, Richard T.
  • Chang, Sanders S.

This paper examines the role of carry trade and momentum trading strategies and their implications for the magnitude of the forward premium anomaly. The formal analysis uses a logistic smooth transition regression, with transition variables related to the different currency trading strategies. The hypothesis of uncovered interest parity is found to hold in an upper regime where carry trades appear profitable on the basis of interest differentials and where exchange rate volatility is high.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 441-464

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:441-464
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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  1. A. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2010. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Working Papers 10-44, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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  3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  5. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  7. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
  8. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  9. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
  10. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 0. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
  12. Andreas M. Fischer, 2002. "Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?," Working Papers 02.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  13. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  14. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  15. Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
  16. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
  17. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
  18. Phillips, Kerk L. & Snow, Karl, 1998. "The forward bias: is it a money tree?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 373-379, December.
  19. Momtchil Pojarliev, 2005. "Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 297-311, October.
  20. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 6.
  21. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 963-990, December.
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