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Currency unions and gravity models revisited

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Abstract

Gravity models have been shown to be fairly effective in modelling bilateral trading patterns, explaining more than 50 per cent of the variation in trade. This paper examines bilateral trade patterns using a data set provided by Rose and van Wincoop (2001). Rose (2000) has suggested that forming a currency union has a dramatic effect on the volume of intra-union trade. A number of econometric issues are identified with respect to this claim. There is some evidence that Rose's (2000) empirical results are not entirely robust to the sample of countries used, and to the estimation method. In particular, some of the regressors may be endogenous, which casts doubt on the magnitude of the parameter estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Christie Smith, 2002. "Currency unions and gravity models revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2002/07
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/2002/dp02-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coe, David T & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1999. "North-South Trade: Is Africa Unusual?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(2), pages 228-256, July.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    4. Emla Fitzsimons & Vincent Hogan & J. Peter Neary, 1999. "Explaining the Volume of North-South Trade in Ireland - A Gravity Model Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 381-401.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 508, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Emla Fitzsimons & J. Peter Neary, 1999. "Explaining the volume of north south trade : a gravity model approach," Open Access publications 10197/48, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    2. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    3. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    4. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. John Hawkins & Paul Masson, 2003. "Economic aspects of regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 4-42 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Boerner, Lars & Volckart, Oliver, 2011. "The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 53-65, January.
    7. repec:got:cegedp:112 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Choosing an anchor currency for the Pacific," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 112, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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