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Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters

Author

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  • Lee, Jim

Abstract

Estimation results from a dynamic factor model confirm an increase in output synchronization across European countries during the run-up to the inception of EMU, but EMU by itself has not continued to foster the emergence of a common business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Jim, 2012. "Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 438-440.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:438-440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    4. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    5. Bueno, José Luis Cendejas & Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, Ma Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in factor loadings: An application to international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 259-263.
    6. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 36/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Rodrigues, Mauro & Soares, Tiago, 2009. "Correlation of business cycles in the euro zone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 56-58, January.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    10. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Real growth co-movements and business cycle synchronization in the GCC countries: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 322-331.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    5. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    6. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    7. repec:wut:journl:v:1:y:2017:p:57-75:id:1269 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-568 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    10. Bruzda Joanna, 2015. "Amplitude and phase synchronization of European business cycles: a wavelet approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 625-655, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output comovement; EMU; Dynamic factor model; Time-varying parameters;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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