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Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters

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  • Lee, Jim

Abstract

Estimation results from a dynamic factor model confirm an increase in output synchronization across European countries during the run-up to the inception of EMU, but EMU by itself has not continued to foster the emergence of a common business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Jim, 2012. "Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 438-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:438-440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    10. Bueno, José Luis Cendejas & Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, Ma Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in factor loadings: An application to international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 259-263.
    11. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    5. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Awe Olushina Olawale & Adepoju Abosede Adedayo, 2020. "Change-point detection in CO2 emission-energy consumption nexus using a recursive Bayesian estimation approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 123-136, March.
    7. MeiChi Huang, 2019. "A Nationwide or Localized Housing Crisis? Evidence from Structural Instability in US Housing Price and Volume Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1547-1563, April.
    8. Marianna Siničáková & Veronika Šuliková & Ľubica Štiblárová, 2018. "Tradičný a alternatívny pohľad na synchronizáciu hospodárskych cyklov v Európskej únii [Traditional and Alternative Look at the Business Cycle Synchronisation in the European Union]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 260-277.
    9. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Olushina Olawale Awe & Abosede Adedayo Adepoju, 2020. "Change-point detection in CO2 emission-energy consumption nexus using a recursive Bayesian estimation approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 123-136, March.
    11. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    12. Bruzda Joanna, 2015. "Amplitude and phase synchronization of European business cycles: a wavelet approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 625-655, December.
    13. Maria Jesús Delgado-Rodriguez & Sonia De lucas-Santos, 2013. "Testing cyclical convergence with the factor model in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2245-2250.
    14. Irena Vodenska & Lou Chitkushev, 2013. "Impact of Euro Adoption on Emerging European Countries," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(1), pages 49-70.
    15. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Real growth co-movements and business cycle synchronization in the GCC countries: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 322-331.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    18. Arkadiusz Kijek, 2017. "Spectral analysis of business cycles in Poland and its major trading partners," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 27(1), pages 57-75.
    19. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
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    21. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    22. Anna Solms & Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "Business cycle characteristics of Mediterranean economies: a secular trend and cycle dynamics perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 825-862, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output comovement; EMU; Dynamic factor model; Time-varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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