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Aggregate Fluctuations with National and International Returns to Scale

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  • Allen C. Head

    (Queen's University, Canada)

Abstract

Cyclical movements in aggregate output, factor inputs, and productivity are all positively correlated across countries. This article proposes a model in which positive cross-country correlations of these variables result from increasing returns to the world-wide variety of intermediate goods even if technology shocks are purely country-specific. The model also accounts for the observed positive relationship between bilateral trade volume and international comovements. Positive comovements can also arise with constant returns to variety, but only if technology shocks are themselves strongly correlated. The combination of constant returns and common shocks, however, tends to generate procyclical fluctuations of the trade balance. Copyright 2002 by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association

Suggested Citation

  • Allen C. Head, 2002. "Aggregate Fluctuations with National and International Returns to Scale," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1101-1125, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:43:y:2002:i:4:p:1101-1125
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    3. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    4. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
    5. Daniel Farhat, 2009. "Endogenous Labor Supply, Heterogeneous Firms and International Business Cycles," Working Papers 0909, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2009.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Baxter, Marianne & Farr, Dorsey D., 2005. "Variable capital utilization and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 335-347, March.
    8. Horag Choi & George Alessandria, 2009. "The Role of Exporting and Trade for Entry over the Business Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Cook, David, 2002. "Market entry and international propagation of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 155-175, January.
    10. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 511-523.
    11. Daniel Farhat, 2010. "Capital Accumulation, Non-traded Goods and International Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Working Papers 1002, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.

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