National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates
This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is investigated. Several refinements of conventional methods are suggested. Three different detrending filters are used, including ones that tend to distort the spectrum in opposite directions. As advocated in the literature, features of the spectra which survive these different detrending procedures are considered to be robust. The study reveals evidence of significant classical business cycles with frequencies corresponding to about two to four and about seven to ten years period lengths that are both reflected also in the spectra of the two supranational economies.The central findings are summarized with regard to (i) national product share, contribution-to-variance and volatility charateristics, (ii) explained variance and prominence of the cyclicalities contained in the different macro-aggregates and (iii) lead-lag and coherence relationships with national and supranational product cycles.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
- J. J. Reeves & C. A. Blyth & C. M. Triggs & J. P. Small, "undated". "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a Generalisation, and a New Procedure for Extracting an Empirical Cycle from a Series," Reports 9602, University of Auckland, Department of Economics.
- Forni, Mario, et al, 2001.
"Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 62-85, May.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
- Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 2801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 277-344 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- M. Dueker & K. Wesche, 1999. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity," Discussion Paper Serie B 448, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
- Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1997. "Inventories and the business cycle: an overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 11-22.
- Selover, David D., 1997. "Business cycle transmission between the United States and Japan: A vector error correction approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 385-411, August.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
- Muellbauer, John, 1997. "The Assessment: Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, Autumn.
- Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-1298, December.
- Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January.
- Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
- E. Philip Howrey, 1980. "The Role of Time Series Analysis in Econometric Model Evaluation," NBER Chapters,in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 275-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- den Haan, Wouter J. & SUMNER, STEVEN W, 2001. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8c23205t, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
- Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A measure of co-movement for economic variables: theory and empirics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10139, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.