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Tests of risk premia in linear factor models

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  • Kleibergen, Frank

Abstract

We show that statistical inference on the risk premia in linear factor models that is based on the Fama-MacBeth (FM) and generalized least squares (GLS) two-pass risk premia estimators is misleading when the [beta]'s are small and/or the number of assets is large. We propose novel statistics, that are based on the maximum likelihood estimator of Gibbons [Gibbons, M., 1982. Multivariate tests of financial models: A new approach. Journal of Financial Economics 10, 3-27], which remain trustworthy in these cases. The inadequacy of the FM and GLS two-pass t/Wald statistics is highlighted in a power and size comparison using quarterly portfolio returns from Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S., 2001. Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying. Journal of Political Economy 109, 1238-1287]. The power and size comparison shows that the FM and GLS two-pass t/Wald statistics can be severely size distorted. The 95% confidence sets for the risk premia in the above-cited work that result from the novel statistics differ substantially from those that result from the FM and GLS two-pass t-statistics. They show support for the human capital asset pricing model although the 95% confidence set for the risk premia on labor income growth is unbounded. The 95% confidence sets show no support for the (scaled) consumption asset pricing model, since the 95% confidence set of the risk premia on the scaled consumption growth consists of the whole real line, but do not reject it either.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleibergen, Frank, 2009. "Tests of risk premia in linear factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 149-173, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:149:y:2009:i:2:p:149-173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    2. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2017. "Too Good to Be True? Fallacies in Evaluating Risk Factor Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    4. Ahn, Seung C. & Perez, M. Fabricio & Gadarowski, Christopher, 2013. "Two-pass estimation of risk premiums with multicollinear and near-invariant betas," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Shang, Hua, 2013. "Inference in asset pricing models with a low-variance factor," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1046-1060.
    6. Antonio Diez de Los Rios, 2015. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 282-295, April.
    7. Tchatoka, Firmin Doko, 2015. "Subset Hypotheses Testing And Instrument Exclusion In The Linear Iv Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(06), pages 1192-1228, December.
    8. Kleibergen, Frank & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2015. "Unexplained factors and their effects on second pass R-squared’s," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 101-116.
    9. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Khalaf, Lynda & Schaller, Huntley, 2016. "Identification and inference in two-pass asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 165-177.
    11. Peter Christoffersen & Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs & Mehdi Karoui, 2015. "Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk," CREATES Research Papers 2015-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Moshe Levy, 2012. "On the Spurious Correlation Between Sample Betas and Mean Returns," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 341-360, September.
    13. repec:oup:rasset:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:1-47. is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & O. Scaillet, 2016. "A Diagnostic Criterion for Approximate Factor Structure," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-51, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Dec 2016.
    15. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2017. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," CESifo Working Paper Series 6391, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Price Dividend Ratio Factors : Proxies for Long Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Peter Van Tassel, 2017. "Global Variance Term Premia and Intermediary Risk Appetite," 2017 Meeting Papers 149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Van Tassel, Peter & Vogt, Erik, 2016. "Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite," Staff Reports 789, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Frank Kleibergen & Zhaoguo Zhan, 2014. "Unexplained factors and their effects on second pass R-squared’s," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 14-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.

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