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A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates

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  • Egorov, Alexei V.
  • Li, Haitao
  • Ng, David

Abstract

Modeling the joint term structure of interest rates in the United States and the European Union, the two largest economies in the world, is extremely important in international finance. In this article, we provide both theoretical and empirical analysis of multi-factor joint affine term structure models (ATSM) for dollar and euro interest rates. In particular, we provide a systematic classification of multi-factor joint ATSM similar to that of Dai and Singleton (2000). A principal component analysis of daily dollar and euro interest rates reveals four factors in the data. We estimate four-factor joint ATSM using the approximate maximum likelihood method of (Aït-Sahalia, 2002) and (Aït-Sahalia, forthcoming) and compare the in-sample and out-of-sample performances of these models using some of the latest nonparametric methods. We find that a new four-factor model with two common and two local factors captures the joint term structure dynamics in the US and the EU reasonably well.

Suggested Citation

  • Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:162:y:2011:i:1:p:55-70
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    2. Seungmoon Choi, 2011. "Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions for Multivariate Time-Inhomogeneous Diffusions," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-26, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Leopold Sogner, 2015. "GMM Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models," Papers 1508.01661, arXiv.org.
    4. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Choi, Seungmoon, 2013. "Closed-form likelihood expansions for multivariate time-inhomogeneous diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 45-65.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert L., 2010. "Estimating affine multifactor term structure models using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 113-144, October.
    8. Yung, Julieta, 2014. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 207, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2014. "Assessing the Effectiveness of Date-Based Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound with a Non-Gaussian Affine Term-Structure Model," Working Papers 192014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Joao Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2011. "Efficient Interest Ratecurve Estimation And Forecasting In Brazil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 133, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Juneja, Januj, 2012. "Common factors, principal components analysis, and the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 48-56.
    12. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2006. "Affine Term Structure Models," Working Paper Series 2007-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1074-1088 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gu, Rongbao & Chen, Xi & Li, Xinjie, 2014. "Chaos recognition and fractal analysis in the term structure of Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 412(C), pages 101-112.

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