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Common factors, principal components analysis, and the term structure of interest rates

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  • Juneja, Januj

Abstract

This paper studies common factor structure of bond returns from the US, UK and Germany. We estimate factors using both principal components analysis and common principal components analysis (CPCA), and construct factor mimicking portfolios to provide interpretations for some of these factors. A regression analysis of these portfolios shows that the common factors relate mostly to the level and steepness of the term structure in the US, with the first common factor explains approximately 90% of the variation. We use simulations to show that the power of the CPC test statistic to detect similarities in the factor structure which comprises our sample is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Juneja, Januj, 2012. "Common factors, principal components analysis, and the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 48-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:48-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:56-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2016. "Time-varying risk premium yield spread effect in term structure and global financial crisis: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 303-311.
    3. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1074-1088 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond returns; Principal components analysis; Common factors; Term structure of interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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