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Forecasts of inflation and interest rates in no-arbitrage affine models

Author

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  • Nikolay Gospodinov
  • Bin Wei

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological side, we propose a novel way of incorporating information from these markets into an affine model. On the empirical side, two main findings emerge from our analysis. First, incorporating information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Second, incorporating oil futures tends to improve short-term inflation and longer-term nominal yield forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Gospodinov & Bin Wei, 2016. "Forecasts of inflation and interest rates in no-arbitrage affine models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2016-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    2. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2016. "The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond prices; TIPS; inflation derivatives; oil prices; no-arbitrage; affine models; out-of-sample forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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