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Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change

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  • Hau, Harald
  • Massa, Massimo
  • Peress, Joël

Abstract

Do exchange rates react to exogenous capital movements? We explore this issue based on the redefinition of the MSCI international equity indices announced on 10 December 2000 and implemented in two steps on 30 November 2001 and 31 May 2002. The index changes implied major changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI world index. Our event study shows a strong announcement effect in which countries with a decreasing equity representation vis-a-vis the US depreciated against the dollar. Around the two implementation dates, we find further systematic, but opposite, exchange rate effects, which can be interpreted as a result of excessive speculation on the first implementation date and insufficient speculation on the second date.

Suggested Citation

  • Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4862
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hung, Chung-Wen & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2016. "Trader activities, ownership, and stock price reactions to MSCI standard index changes: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, pages 49-63.
    2. Francis Breedon & Angelo Ranaldo, 2013. "Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 953-965, August.
    3. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John, 2015. "Equity hedging and exchange rates at the London 4p.m. fix," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 50-72.
    4. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 413-430.
    6. Hau, Harald, 2014. "The exchange rate effect of multi-currency risk arbitrage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 304-331.
    7. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    8. Atanasov, Vladimir & Merrick, John, 2011. "Financial asset demand is elastic: Evidence from new issues of Federal Home Loan Bank debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3225-3239.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Threat of fiscal dominance?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65, June - Se.
    10. Chen, Haiwei & Ngo, Thanh, 2017. "Leverage-based index revisions: The case of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 16-34.
    11. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 277-304 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2014. "Do ETFs Increase Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 20071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mishra, Anil V., 2013. "Foreign ownership in Australian firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 1-18.
    14. Matthew C. Mitchell & Muhamad Iqbal Mohd Rafi & Sean Severe & Jeffrey A. Kappen, 2014. "Conventional Vs. Islamic Finance: The Impact Of Ramadan Upon Sharia-Compliant Markets," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 5(1).
    15. repec:eee:ememar:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gerlach, Jeffrey R. & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Political conflict and foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from North Korean attacks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 178-196.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    event study; exchange rates; Global Equity Index Funds; Limits of Arbitrage;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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