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Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings

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In this paper, we analyze how capital flows into the sovereign debt market affect government bond prices and liquidity. Additionally, we explore whether these flows spill over to the exchange rate. To address endogeneity concerns, we construct a measure of informationless capital Flows Implied by (mechanical) Rebalancings (FIR) in the largest local currency government debt index for emerging countries. We find that FIR is associated with higher returns on bonds and greater depth in the sovereign debt market after the rebalancings. These capital flows also impact the exchange rate market; larger inflows (outflows) are associated with greater currency appreciations (depreciations).

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File URL: http://www.csef.it/WP/wp487.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 487.

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Date of creation: 12 Nov 2017
Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:487
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  1. Honghui Chen & Gregory Noronha & Vijay Singal, 2004. "The Price Response to S&P 500 Index Additions and Deletions: Evidence of Asymmetry and a New Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1901-1930, August.
  2. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2015. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," CSEF Working Papers 410, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 13 Jul 2017.
  3. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Williams, Tomas, 2012. "Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2102-2126.
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  11. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:04:y:2013:i:03:n:s1793993313500166 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
  13. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
  14. Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers 2017-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  15. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
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