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Trade shocks and credit reallocation

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  • Federico, Stefano
  • Hassan, Fadi
  • Rappoport, Veronica

Abstract

This paper identifies a credit-supply contraction that arises endogenously after trade liberalization. Banks with loan portfolios concentrated in sectors exposed to competition from China face an increase in nonperforming loans after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result, they reduce the supply of credit to firms, irrespective of the firm’s sector of operation. This cut in credit translates into lower employment, investment, and output. Through this mechanism, the financial channel amplifies the shock to firms already hit by import competition from China and passes it on to firms in sectors expected to expand upon trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi & Rappoport, Veronica, 2025. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127945, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127945
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/127945/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen J. Redding & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2008. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1397-1412, September.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    3. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    4. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    5. Pol Antràs & Ricardo J. Caballero, 2009. "Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 701-744, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Hoffmann & Lilia Ruslanova, 2020. "Softening the blow: U.S. state-level banking deregulation and sectoral reallocation after the China trade shock," ECON - Working Papers 365, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2021.
    2. Bernini Federico Gastón & Donaldson Paula & Garcia-Lembergman Ezequiel & Juárez Leticia, 2024. "The Financial Channel of Tax Amnesty Policies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4710, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    3. Lloyd, Simon & Reinhardt, Dennis & Sowerbutts , Rhiannon, 2023. "Financial services trade restrictions and lending from an international financial centre," Bank of England working papers 1022, Bank of England.
    4. Federico Cingano & Fadi Hassan, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1697, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Esposito, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2023. "Import Competition, Trade Credit, and Financial Frictions in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 17926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers: Evidence from the nobel peace prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Berthou, Antoine & Mayer, Thierry & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2024. "Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Donni Fajar Anugrah & Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Dian Rahmawati & Sulistiyo Kadam Ardiyono & Hilya Jannatul Imron, 2024. "Measuring Export Diversification Strategies Amid Global Geo-Economic Fragmentation," Working Papers WP/06/2024, Bank Indonesia.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler, 2022. "Trade and credit reallocation: How banks help shape comparative advantage," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 282-305, February.
    14. Izadi, Mohammad & Saadi, Vahid, 2023. "Banking Market Structure and Trade Shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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