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Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending

Author

Listed:
  • Correa, Ricardo
  • Di Giovanni, Julian
  • Goldberg, Linda S.
  • Minoiu, Camelia

Abstract

This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks’ exante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Correa, Ricardo & Di Giovanni, Julian & Goldberg, Linda S. & Minoiu, Camelia, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 18631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18631
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    Cited by:

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    2. Felipe Benguria & Dennis Novy, 2025. "How to Grow an Invoicing Currency: Micro Evidence from Argentina," CESifo Working Paper Series 11964, CESifo.
    3. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Mauricio Calani & Paula Margaretic & David Moreno, 2024. "Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1027, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Boungou, Whelsy & Dufau, Bastien & Fawaz, Mahdi & Dash, Devi Prasad, 2025. "Energy uncertainty index and European banks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Calani, Mauricio & Margaretic, Paula & Moreno, David, 2025. "Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio & Avril, Pauline, 2025. "Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Working Paper Series 3143, European Central Bank.
    8. Friederike Niepmann & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking," International Finance Discussion Papers 1418, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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