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Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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  • McQuade, Peter
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Reghezza, Alessio
  • Avril, Pauline

Abstract

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure. Banks with greater exposure raised impairments despite exhibiting similar levels of credit distress to their peers, suggesting that the fall in lending was driven by uncertainty. Moreover, firms that were heavily reliant on banks with high exposure to geopolitical risk were unable to fully substitute this shortfall in credit by borrowing more from less affected banks, which significantly constrained firm investment and employment. JEL Classification: G1, G21, E22

Suggested Citation

  • McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio & Avril, Pauline, 2025. "Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Working Paper Series 3143, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253143
    Note: 2104363
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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