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Default Risk Premia On Government Bonds In A Quantitative Macroeconomic Model

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  • Juessen, Falko
  • Linnemann, Ludger
  • Schabert, Andreas

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic model in which the government does not guarantee to repay debt. We ask whether movements in the price of government bonds can be rationalized by lenders' unwillingness to fully roll over debt when the outstanding level of debt exceeds the government's repayment capacity. Investors do not support a Ponzi game in this case, but ration credit supply, thus forcing default at an endogenously determined fractional repayment rate. Interest rates on government bonds reflect expectations of this event. Numerical results show that default premia can emerge at moderately high debt-to-GDP ratios where even small changes in fundamentals lead to steeply rising interest rates. The behavior of risk premia broadly accords with recent observations for several European countries that experienced a worsening of fundamental fiscal conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2016. "Default Risk Premia On Government Bonds In A Quantitative Macroeconomic Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 380-403, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:01:p:380-403_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: The time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "On The Role Of Debt Maturity In A Model With Sovereign Risk And Financial Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 2114-2131, July.
    3. Perego, Erica, 2020. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Séverine Menguy, 2023. "Fundamental character of the risk premium to influence the sustainability of the public debt," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 2(1), pages 112-126, March.
    5. Huixin Bi & Ms. Wenyi Shen & Ms. Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/049, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Zuzana Mucka, 2019. "The mirror does not lie: Endogenous fiscal limits for Slovakia," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2019, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    7. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    8. Michinao Okachi, 2019. "Sovereign Default Triggered by Inability to Repay Debt," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Huixin Bi, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Micheli, Martin, 2020. "Aggregate stability under a budget rule and labor mobility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 510-519.
    11. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    12. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.
    13. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2019. "Sovereign bond markets when auctions take place: Evidence from Italy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 406-430.
    14. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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