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Default Risk Premia On Government Bonds In A Quantitative Macroeconomic Model

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  • Juessen, Falko
  • Linnemann, Ludger
  • Schabert, Andreas

Abstract

This paper examines the pricing of public debt in a quantitative macroeconomic model with government default risk. Default may occur due to a fiscal policy that does not preclude a Ponzi game. When a build-up of public debt makes this outcome inevitable, households stop lending such that the government has to default. Interest rates on government bonds reflect expectations of this event. There may exist multiple bond prices compatible with a rational expectations equilibrium. We analyze the conditions under which expected default risk premia can quantitatively rationalize sizeable spreads on public bonds. Sovereign default risk premia turn out to emerge at either very high debt to output ratios, or if the variance of productivity shocks is large.
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  • Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2016. "Default Risk Premia On Government Bonds In A Quantitative Macroeconomic Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 380-403, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:01:p:380-403_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2017. "On the Role of Debt Maturity in a Model with Sovereign Risk and Financial Frictions On the Role of Debt Maturity in a Model with Sovereign Risk and Financial Frictions," Working Papers halshs-01467214, HAL.
    2. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, March.
    3. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    4. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/49, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    6. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.
    7. Erica Perego, 2018. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Documents de recherche 18-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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