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Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries

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  • Beqiraj, Elton
  • Fedeli, Silvia
  • Tancioni, Massimiliano

Abstract

We formalize sovereign and private sector default probabilities into a monetary model in order to test the hypothesis, which recently appeared in the literature, of whether the consideration of a sovereign risk channel affects the sign and size of output fiscal multipliers. The model is estimated for the most vulnerable Eurozone countries-characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratio-and stochastically simulated conditional on expenditure and revenue policy measures. We show that, conditional on specific fiscal shocks, the risk channel can operate in a pro-cyclical direction, amplifying the temporary contractionary effects of fiscal retrenchments. We show that both the relations between economic fundamentals and sovereign debt spreads and that between sovereign and credit spreads are weak. Therefore, the effectiveness of the risk channel for fiscal consolidations is small, irrespective of the direction of change in the sovereign default probability.

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  • Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000358
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101400
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drisk; Interest rates; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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